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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Jan 12, 2013 1:04 AM Flag

    Wallis, did you read the barron's piece on ARM CEO interview.

    The headline was
    "ARM CEO East Says Phooey to the ‘Transistor Cliff’ "

    Your thoughts??

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • "When I propose to East that ARM's taking a larger share of the traditional WinTel notebook chip market would be a psychological victory of some sort, he brushes aside the suggestion. “It doesn't matter because it's already evident to most people that these kinds of ARM-based systems are eventually going to take over” the large bulk of traditional computing."

      [When Intel chips are the market leaders in performance and power efficiency and competitive in price, why would anyone assume that ARM would take over the bulk of traditional computing? The guy acts as if fabrication will be frozen today and never advance. Well, that's pretty much true of ARM but certainly not Intel. But, hey - what's the guy going to say? That given the trend in fabrication, Intel will turn ARM into AMD in three years? He's not going to say it but that's what is going to happen. We got solid proof of that at CES...]

      "When I reply that a transistor cliff would imply some companies wouldn't be able to progress at all, he replies, “I'm not sure I buy the notion of a transistor cliff; I think there's a lot of marketing fluff in that.”"

      [Intel is closing the power efficiency gap with ARM faster than anyone thought possible and they are doing it substantially but not entirely with superior fabrication. Let's see what Mr. East has to say when Intel's 14nm products hit the streets and the deals start falling Intel's way. Maybe then he will admit that ARM has gone over the edge of the transistor cliff...]

      [It doesn't really matter what Mr. East says. ARM will be at 28nm for a very, very long time, 20nm planar will be significantly problematic and 14nm FinFET non-existent for ARM for years and years. Intel will continue to move the node process every two years. To say that will not effect ARMs ability to compete is just not true. It changes everything...]

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/01/11/arm-ceo-east-says-phooey-to-the-transistor-cliff/?mod=yahoobarrons

      More gems of stupidity ...

      'When I propose to East that ARM's taking a larger share of the traditional WinTel notebook chip market would be a psychological victory of some sort, he brushes aside the suggestion. “It doesn't matter because it's already evident to most people that these kinds of ARM-based systems are eventually going to take over” the large bulk of traditional computing.'

      'In the Intel worldview, a kind of “Transistor Cliff,” if you will, is one very possible end game.

      To East, it is nonsense. He offers that the things that sell individual chips are “How much does the chip cost, how fast does it go, and how much power does it consume,” considered in concert. If chips can do that in any existing technology, “Why even move to the next node?”

      “The only benefit of a new geometry is to get more chips out of a wafer,” adds East.

      But if wafers end up costing twice as much because double patterning — the application of multiple additional “mask layers” — is needed to get to smaller geometries, than the additional cost may outweigh any benefits.

      When I reply that a transistor cliff would imply some companies wouldn't be able to progress at all, he replies, “I'm not sure I buy the notion of a transistor cliff; I think there's a lot of marketing fluff in that.”'

      • 1 Reply to marsavian
      • “The only benefit of a new geometry is to get more chips out of a wafer,”

        "But if wafers end up costing twice as much because double patterning — the application of multiple additional “mask layers” — is needed to get to smaller geometries, than the additional cost may outweigh any benefits."
        -------------------------------------------------------------------------

        Can only repeat:
        ARMH is a rubber stamp...

    • What else can you say when you can't control the ability to get your technology manufactured at the the advanced process that your competitor can (and pulling away). You dismiss it. And he keeps using the power advantage argument.

      • 1 Reply to zags97
      • Earlier East used the power advantage argument but now that that is mostly gone he's moved to the next line of defense which is the size of the ARM ecosystem and ARM's marketshare. Intel is giving East no good entry point for servers and ARM was just thrown out of the Samsung's Windows tablet. One by one, Intel is dismantling ARM's defenses along with East's grandiose claims.

 
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