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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • semi_equip_junkie semi_equip_junkie Jan 12, 2013 5:40 PM Flag

    Some follow up on GF's $10 billion "annoucement"

    The idea Intel could simply build chips for Apple ( AAPL) or Qualcomm ( QCOM) seems to Mosemann not an answer: “Does it make sense for Intel to build $10 billion shiny new fabs for foundry work? We think not for 45-50% gross margins, and ask IBM how the foundry investment turned out.”

    Me thinks ARM weasels are getting cornered - they start contradict each other - I mean heavy duty..
    Neither East nor clown Hans seem to be up to date what the foundries are doing.
    In particular East seems to be clueless but he works "closely" with all the independent foundries.
    TSMC Breaks Ground to Build 16nm FinFET Fab - X-bit labs
    Looks like the ARM mantra of (cheap) manufacturing playing third fiddle is melting away

    Mosesmann writes that the recent announcement Intel CEO Paul Otellini will step down next May was “spit-my-coffee-on-my-PC alarming” and a “big deal.”

    Why? Because Mosesmann thinks Intel needs to change its culture of simply building bigger fabs (not: NVDA is suggesting 450mm fabs!).

    At issue is what Mosesmann sees as the potential for a “gross margin disaster” as rival ARM Holdings ( ARMH) gains ground and Intel’s gains against Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD) fade amidst a sluggish PC market:

    We believe the 62%-65% gross margins seen over the last three years were the exception to the rule. Over that time, Intel gained share vs. AMD in both PCs & servers and benefited from the last real Windows enterprise upgrade cycle. With these benefits abating, Intel has a number of new challenges in the form commoditization of x86 (by ARM), price competition in both PC and data center markets (also ARM) and an increasing capex burden (with little to no growth). We believe mid 50% (and potentially low 50% over time) gross margins are an increasing reality as opposed to a downside scenario, and investors should brace for lower estimates. With ARM-apps processor pricing at 15-20% of x86 vs. Intel on recently launched Surface platforms, we believe a gross margin baseline below 55% should not be surprising. The data center assault from ARM will be next, and that could prove even more damaging as this is the only area where Intel has posted op. profit growth in 2012.

    The idea Intel could simply build chips for Apple ( AAPL) or Qualcomm ( QCOM) seems to Mosemann not an answer: “Does it make sense for Intel to build $10 billion shiny new fabs for foundry work? We think not for 45-50% gross margins, and ask IBM how the foundry investment turned out.”

    May 19, 2011 – Others have called this structure a FinFET for several years, but FinFETs ... to 32nm planar transistors) while increasing wafer cost by 2% to 3%.
    What about Intel not only matching but actually undercutting TSMC et al...

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    • Mosesmann is the absolute worst analyst commenting on the semi industry, everything he said above is blatant nonsense just like his price forecasts e.g. NVDA to $40 ! How he is still in a job just amazes me as he is totally incompetent and stupid.

    • "With ARM-apps processor pricing at 15-20% of x86 vs. Intel on recently launched Surface platforms, we believe a gross margin baseline below 55% should not be surprising. The data center assault from ARM will be next, and that could prove even more damaging as this is the only area where Intel has posted op. profit growth in 2012."

      [This analyst cites pricing as a huge advantage for ARM on the Surface platform. Um, the results speak otherwise as it appears that they can't price the ARM Surface RT cheap enough to get it to sell. This is the kind of clueless analysis that is driving Wall Street...]

      [As far as the data center assault, I have to ask, "What data center assault?" He says it will be more damaging than the Surface RT. LOL The Surface RT has come and gone without a ripple. As will the data center assault...]

      [ARM has BTFF (bubble trouble coupled with fabrication fade). A bad combination. Often fatal...]

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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