Maybe the estimate is stinks - I suppose that's too simple.
Let's put matters into perspective:
TSMC announced $9 billion capex for 2013 and Intel "supposedly" $10 billion capex? - less than $1 billion of Q4 TSMC revenue came from 28nm !
I believe a couple billions of Intel capex are already allocated towards 450mm
Intel is managing its business to gain strategic competitive advantage over its competitors and do it with greater cost efficiency than anyone in the industry. Intel is intentionally accelerating the roadmap into territory ARM foundries cannot follow. Some inexperienced analyst will not understand making a bold move and may "freak out" but that's why analysts spend their careers reporting on other people's businesses instead of running their own.
I think this is the cap spending reason. Intel could announce it yet and cannot put the revenue in its estimates but it did today give the increased Cap Ex spending.
1/04/2013 @ 11:23AM |5,820 views
Intel Could Be Apple's Chip Fab With Little Extra Cap Ex
There’s been a growing view in Silicon Valley – and on Wall Street – that Apple at some point will turn to Intel to act as a foundry for the processors used in iPhones and iPads. Apple has been relying on Samsung to produce its processors; but given the ongoing patent litigation between the two companies, as well as their growing rivalry in smartphones, Apple has reportedly been seeking alternatives. Among the most obvious choices: Intel and Taiwan Semiconductor.
MKM Partners analyst Daniel Berenbaum took a look at the situation this morning and concluded that Intel could take on the new role as a foundry – Apple uses an ARM-based design for its proprietary processors, and not Intel-designed processors – without any significant additional capital investment.
Berenbaum writes that he sees a foundry relationship between Intel and Apple as increasingly likely, “as it would be beneficial to both parties.” And he thinks the Street’s concerns about the additional capital commitment required from Intel are overblown.