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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • wallisweaver wallisweaver Jan 19, 2013 12:48 PM Flag

    What We Know Now

    1.) Intel has recognized that mobility is the major growth area and has total re-organized priorities to address this. They have changed the timetables for all mobile strategies and moved them to the top. It's amazing the so many Wall Street types think that Intel does not have a new post-PC business plan. Even more amazing that they think it's not working. There's plenty of evidence that it is.
    2.) Intel will pass ARM in power efficiency in 2013. This is just some of the evidence that Intel's post-PC business plan is getting significant traction.
    3.) The companies that went with Intel early on in smartphones and mobility will look like geniuses by the end of 2013. This early adoption is going to put them in the catbird seat for superior performance and power consumption efficiency that ARM will not be able to match.
    4.) ARMs fabrication is substantially inferior. Two to three years til 20nm volume production. And then after that - nothing. They are looking at at least 4 years to develop 14nm. This will give Intel three years of having their way with the market with their 14nm production. And they will have a lot of it.
    5.) In four years Intel will be doing volume production on 10nm and getting 7nm ready. No company that has to be on or even near the cutting edge of technology will be able to rely on ARMs fading fabrication.
    6.) The ARM roadmap after 20nm is a looming void. They will likely have to do EUV and maybe even 450mm at the same time. It took TSCM a year to get 28nm yields just up to an acceptable level. Intel ramped 22nm smoothly and rapidly and will do the same with 14nm. They are already producing product. Expect all these things to prevent TSMC from reaching volume production on 14nm for years. It's so far out in the future with so many massively complex issues for them to solve that it's impossible to predict when it might happen. When it does, Intel will be at least 2 product cycles ahead. Intel is going to own mobility and that's because of its advanced fabrication and manufacturing.
    7.) Otellini has commented on Intel coming in to a "golden age". He’s talking about Intel’s significant technology edge. He knows ARM can't keep up with Intel's fabrication cycles and that will determine how mobility will play out.
    8.) It's not about talking smack as ARM CEO Warren East is fond of doing. He can talk all he wants. It won't do a thing to diminish Intel's rapidly growing advantage in fabrication. Intel's efforts have gone exactly where they needed to go. Years of preparation are coming to fruition.
    9.) Intel will have huge 22nm capacity and then huge 14nm capacity. No one will want 28nm ARM processors, given a choice. As it becomes more and more obvious that Intel will stay on the cutting edge as ARMs fabrication fades, there will be much more of an incentive to switch. We are in the midst of that change where it is becoming obvious. 14nm will be available this year. That means discussions and planning are taking place right now for those who want to be on the cutting edge and then on a direct path to 14, then to 10, then to 7 and then to 5nm.
    10.) It's possible that Intel will soon be the only major IDM (integrated device manufacturer) left in the world. As processors become more complex this is more and more important. The ARM fabless model is essentially broken because it doesn't have the tight integration of design and manufacturing that is required to have a successful experience with today's state-of-the-art processors and fabrication.
    12.) Let us not forget the economics. Each new processor cycle brings improved economics. But this is only true for Intel and not for the ARM foundries. This is something that ARM would very much like to prevent becoming common knowledge. This is why Intel keeps telling us it is necessary for them to continue the every eight quarter pace. Those that can't keep up (the entire ARM world) will have lesser economics, worse margins and problems with cash flow. The trend in the area is clear and ARM is powerless to do anything about it. They don't have the time, money or technology to stay competitive in fabrication.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Thanks Wally,

      Good sound analysis. The question is, how much more downward manipulation of the stock price will Wall Street criminals be driving before flipping the switch and loading up on INTC for the big boy clients?

      At the end of the day it might make good financial sense to simply run a prison wall around all of the NYC financial district and call it 'justice served"

 
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