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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • jceandthegirls jceandthegirls Jan 19, 2013 2:40 PM Flag

    Same song, tenth verse?

    During Thursday's CC, the first question was by the Deutsche Bank analyst who asked when, after all the cap-ex over the past several years, can we expect returns to shareholders on those investments to be coming? Otellini talked about "line of sight", completely dodged the question, and the analyst did not follow up. I have the same question. Management has talked a good game for at least the past ten years, but the fact remains that you could have bought Intel shares at anytime over the past ten years for the price it is selling at today. I am a long-term holder and enjoy the dividend, but also wonder when these company investments will begin to pay off in terms of share price. Even on this message board, the longs with anything substantive to say talk about all of the great things Intel is doing, and how they are (or will be) killing the competition, but also seem to have taken on the "wait till next year" attitude. Has Intel become nothing more than a trading vehicle? Is its future one of just hanging in there with a good dividend and share buy-back program to keep the stock price afloat?

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • The fundamentals on INTC are much better than they were a decade ago.
      Stock price? Ask the (people) who control and manipulate this
      market and the drunks at the SEC.

      When you're real big it's hard to grow. It's also easy to fall down.
      All this yak about mobile, and if INTC owned all of it , it would only amount to 10% of their current revenue.
      The question is, what are the possible overall growth catalysts open to INTC?
      The server industry is supposed to quadruple in 10 years. At 25% of INTC revenue that would imply
      a naive double in revenue, but I'm not so sure I see how the margins will be there to double earnings.
      Overall internet of everything will grow, tablets will grow, smartphones will grow, and INTC will grow into these markets. So too, PC's and Desktops will find a way to grow, in blended form factor mode.

      So, I would bet on a firm factor of 43 or more in revenues
      and factor of 2 or more in earnings growth over the next decade. Conservatively.
      That means divvy will double (which is consistent with current rate).
      Stock price? Ask the people who control and manipulate this
      market and the drunks at the SEC.

 
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