Do you not know what a bubble is? ARM is expected to make $0.86/share in 2013. That, for the mathematically challenged, bubble-loving ARM pumpers, is $394M in net income.
Intel pays out $1.1B/quarter in dividends. They literally just give away 3x ARM's net income to people just for holding a piece of paper that says "I own Intel".
What's your bet on when the ARMH bubble pops? What catalyst do you think it will take to get people running for the exits?
Looks like my earlier observation of ARMH hitting a technical peak in the low 44s has proved correct, ARMH in the 42s in pre-market. Looks like the big money men are ready to shear the retail sheep now, the bubble deflation won't stop now until ARMH hits a more realistic stock price of $10-15 in a couple of years time.
And a great call it was. Looks like it's time for another incremental ARM put buy.
Here are some of the things putting pressure on ARM:
1.) Big news on Apple's declining margins as reflected in the declining stock price. It would seem that any big decline in Apple would affect ARM. Hasn't til now, but it looks like that is changing.
2. Better than expected reception for the Surface Pro. Although still an imperfect product, it shows that Intel tablets are going to be in demand and will have greatly superior performance to all ARM tablets.
3.) As many as 200 million IT workers may be holding out for the right Windows 8 tablet, Forrester says. And that means an Intel tablet, not an ARM toy.
4.) News on an Apple smartwatch is heating up. This is supposedly in development with Intel. This would be a shocking development that would crush the ARM stock price if it happens.
I'd expect ARM to drop below 20 no more than six months after Intel begins shipment of 14nm product.
Great fun watching the ARM Bubble descend into the land of sharp objects...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I agree with Marsavian's timing projection but for different reasons. Towards the end of this year, Intel's game changing 22nm OOO trigate LP mobile SOC processor will be released. I think it'll take a few months for people to realize how it completely changes the mobile SOC game and they'll start exiting in hordes after that. ARMH is currently priced sentimentally, and Intel's holiday introduction will shake people out.
I will go with Marsavian's prediction with one slight change.
The market will see rapidly increasing adoption of Intel SoCs next year. However, I think Intel stock will start reacting positively (and ARMH negatively) over the next few months - starting with MWC.
The stock market is always looking forward and there will be enough good news for Intel (bad news for ARMH) with regard to dual-core, tablets, Haswell, Bay Trail, etc. which will get the big guys to start accumulating.
A SoC might be a different "beast" compared to CPU but there should be no difference in how SoC or CPU wafers are processed (similar process flow) - IOW by the time the Intel 22nm SoC hits the process should be more or less fully debugged. Intel processed millions of trigate wafers - and that's how yields are being improved and fine tuned and that should be real advantage for Intel SoC cost structure.
SoC and CPU are different when it comes to test equipment at least to my knowledge
Are you attempting to put me down for choosing the horse that won ??
Attempting to let me know I'm a fool for making money...
"Intel pays out $1.1B/quarter in dividends. "
"They literally just give away 3x ARM's net income to people just for holding a piece of paper that says "I own Intel"."
Yes, keeps support for the stock..
How low do you think INTC would be if they didn't pay a dividend...
"Are you attempting to put me down for choosing the horse that won ??
Attempting to let me know I'm a fool for making money..."
[We have no evidence that you chose ARM with anything other than your mouth and not your wallet. Because it's after the fact. You need to post your buys in real time, fabrication boy...]
[We're not trying to put you down because you like ARM. We dislike that you've come to the Intel board with your suite of lies, distortions and ARM propaganda just to bash Intel, not to mention your school boy angst and immaturity. If you want to pump ARM, then go hang out on the ARM board. You won't be missed. You're a punk...]
[On second thought, stick around so we can all mock you when the ARM bubble pops and their fabrication fades to black...]
'What's your bet on when the ARMH bubble pops?'
This time next year for the start of the sea change in both ARMH and INTC. Haswell, Atom and Windows 8 will be having a noticeable effect on the ARM ecosystem by then.
'What catalyst do you think it will take to get people running for the exits?'
Reality not matching forecasts. Could also just be hard resistance as AAPL found when it hit 700.
I think all the analysts have got confused with the initial adopter enthusiasm for a new form factor e.g. tablets being the start of a trend that will never end but the market will get saturated in time like all the other form factors and not everyone will change their iPad/Android tablet when a new model comes along just like they don't now with PCs and laptops. Forecasts will be adjusted to fit reality and ARMH will start to suffer then.
'Could also just be hard resistance as AAPL found when it hit 700.'
I am definitely seeing signs of resistance around the $44 mark and Stock Consultant confirms this. ARMH had a price upgrade from Merrill Lynch but still had trouble going anywhere fast today. We could be close to a technical peak like AAPL had around 700. Stock Consultant says 'WATCH for possible breakout above 44.29, no resistance in area just above.' so we see how the next few days go.
The other thing to look for at Peaks is when a stock does not follow the general market trend, e.g. it does not rise or even falls when the general market is up. This will need a few days more observation to confirm but Wallis just may be right when he says it's time to belly up to the Put Bar and order that first round ;-).
43.93, at resistance, 43.64 ± 0.65, type Single, strength 8
RESISTANCE ABOVE None.
-4.3% at 42.02 ± 0.63, type Single, strength 8
-7.6% at 40.61 ± 0.61, type Single, strength 5
-12.5% at 38.42 ± 0.58, type Single, strength 3
-15.1% at 37.29 ± 0.56, type Double, strength 4
-17.5% at 36.24 ± 0.54, type Single, strength 3
-19.4% at 35.41 ± 0.53, type Single, strength 1
-22.7% at 33.97 ± 0.51, type Double, strength 6
-26.9% at 32.11 ± 0.48, type Single, strength 8
-35% at 28.57 ± 0.43, type Double, strength 6
-36.6% at 27.85 ± 0.42, type Double, strength 7
-38.2% at 27.17 ± 0.41, type Double, strength 9
-40.3% at 26.21 ± 0.39, type Double, strength 10
-43% at 25.03 ± 0.38, type Single, strength 8
-45.1% at 24.12 ± 0.36, type Single, strength 1
-46.9% at 23.33 ± 0.35, type Single, strength 3
-49% at 22.4 ± 0.34, type Double, strength 8