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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • wallisweaver wallisweaver Feb 20, 2013 11:38 PM Flag

    Intel’s Post-14nm Future Begins to Take Shape

    Intel’s Israeli Fab Looking Forward to Make 10nm Chips

    "Owning massive amount of advanced semiconductor manufacturing facilities across the globe, Intel Corp. strategically upgrades selected fabs to manufacture chips using leading-edge process technologies. At present, Intel’s fab in Kiryat Gat, Israel, is making innovative Core i-series “Ivy Bridge” processors using 22nm fabrication process. The fab will skip 14nm technology in order to be upgraded to 10nm in several years from now."

    ARM's Post-28nm Future Begins to Take Shape As Well

    It looks like this:

    P/E Ratio: 10
    Stock Price: 5

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • The way Intel's main market is going (PCs) it appears a bust is setting in where less and less PCs will be in demand. In such a scenario its highly likely Intel will downsize its fabrication capacity and skip future targeted optimizations like 450mm wafers. It may also need to delay or completely curtail development of future nodes such as 10nm. The economics can't support all this excess. Intel's market has been booming for quite a while now. It cant follow that trajectory anymore.

      • 3 Replies to khitchdee
      • Your basic tenet is "no growth" in digital electronics. None in PC's (even though the average Chinese doesn't own one, there is a replacement cycle, serious people need them, and ultra-form factors are actually cool); none in servers, even though the experts are calling for a doubling by 2016 and that's conservative; nothing for INTC in smartphones even though we are just in the first inning of mobile and INTC just showed up at the party and hasn't been handed it's first drink. I now see clearly how stupid you are.

      • You seem to live in a fantasy world where ARM is the company making a billion cash every month and Intel is the one only making a billion in annual revenue ;-). Intel will not be forced to do any of the curtailing that you so inaccurately claim. You seem to forget that Intel has enough money spare to buy back shares and give a generous dividend, the former and then the latter would go first before any R&D cutback. Your claims actually went beyond inaccurate into the realms of idiocy.

      • " It may also need to delay or completely curtail development of future nodes such as 10nm."

        That's why Intel invested $4 billion in litho?

        Bruck, during his presentation, noted that fewer companies are capable of delivering Moore's Law -- and fewer capable of 450mm production. He showed that about 20 semiconductor companies have the $3-5 billion revenue "threshold" (measured in 2011 dollars) to build a 200mm fab. Only nine have revenue, in the $9-12 billion range, which is the threshold for a 300mm fab (those being Intel, Samsung, TSMC, Toshiba, TI, Renesas, ST Micro, Qualcomm and Hynix). "In 300mm configurations, there's a much smaller group that can afford a reasonable capital cost as a percentage of revenue," Bruck said. "If you extend this 300mm model out a few more years, anticipating the next few nodes that come, the list of participants who can afford to build these factories gets even smaller. Somewhere beyond 2015 will be a 450 number which suggests even further concentration."

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