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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • maximum_probability maximum_probability Mar 6, 2013 2:01 PM Flag

    Hedge market gains now, urgent opportunity.

    I gave a buy signal beginning at 20.70 or so with of course additional entries as it went down towards 20 as always implied (i never enter everything instantly so my first entry is always premature in hindsight on purpose, i use 3 steps if needed , in this cycle 2/3 were used). Now at +2sd at 21.78 i see a significant sell signal risk and although intel is fundamentally undervalued permanently it seems, near term a hedge is wise.

    I also spot march 22 puts at unreal volatility bargain at only 0.38 with real current value 0.22and over 8 days to go. Since developments once near 2sd are almost always rapid, 8 days is enough of a hedge.

    Instead of selling a position here one can buy a ton of 22 puts cheap and then if we min crash towards 20-21 area again liquidate it and use the money to buy more leaps, shares etc. If we continue to rally to 2.5-3sd levels as result of news or momentum its also ok, the puts wont go to 0 real fast even if we went to 22.1 now say in a couple days. So having kept the long position in case we continue to move and having removed the risk from below seems ideal at this spot.

    So i suggest a hedge of that type now and i do not view it as a waste of money for nothing with 8 days to go on a rally point we touch 2sd. Events usually are dramatic within 8 days of such points enough to justify the price which by the way seems to be corresponding to a remarkably low (implied) volatility that is ultra bargain for puts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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