"Now my speculation is: Intel has developed a 14nm NAND cell that would shrink the 128Gb chip size to 100 square millimeters. A 450mm fab would produce over twice the square inches of silicon that a 300mm facility would. Thus a 1.2 million wafer 450mm plant would produce about 1.4 billion 128Gb 14nm NAND chips. That would be one $10 billion factory with the output of four $5 billion 300mm plants.
Can Intel make money in the NAND business? Let's just figure a $7000 cost for those 450mm wafers. The 128Gb chips would have to sell for about $14 to Intel itself or the world at large in order to deliver a SSD at $1 per GB. Those big wafers could produce about 1200 100 sq mm chips. At $14 each, the wafer is worth about $16,800 against a $7000 cost is 58% gross margin. When the depreciation is out of that factory, the gross margins would reach into the high 60% range.
There are a lot of numbers to be digested here, but the bottom line is that Intel can make a lot of money on the NAND memory that they are going to need for those SSDs in Ultrabooks. And, no small thing, Intel would be first to 450mm wafer production.
Just another reason to own Intel."
[I found Russ Fischer's speculation on the memory business very interesting - primarily because of the discussion relating to 450mm wafers. This is yet another area in which Intel's leadership will allow them economics that no one else in the business will have for a long time...]
"Now my speculation is: Intel has developed a 14nm NAND cell that would shrink the 128Gb chip size to 100 square millimeters"
Intel NAND business focuses on Enterprise SSD - specifically SLC because of reliability .
I think the author is off track.
Intel 's plate is more than full and they should fully concentrtate on logic and not get sidetracked by NAND