Here are the facts:
1) If you go back and researched old articles, TSMC and Samsung claimed to have 20nm tape out way back in 2011. It's almost 2 years now, and we are not seeing any 20nm parts
2) The CEO of TSMC has already said that they *plan* for 20nm production in 2014 and 2015. Regarding 16nm in 2015 he said "I think it will be very, very small"
3) So, for sure 16nm is *planned* for 2016, but we are talking about transitioning into finFET (3-D), so the timeline can easily slipped.
4) Another thing is designing on finFET is totally different than designing on planar. arm customers have no experience or tools in place to make this transition. This can further the delay. Read the following article:
Not true at all. TSMC just presented SILICON DATA on 20nm and 16nm last week in front of 1,000+ customers and ecosystem partners. Clips from article " TSMC Responds to Samsung!" :
Semiconductor industry contracted 2-3% in 2012
TSMC customers outperformed the PHLX Semiconductor Sector (SOX)
Semiconductor industry to grow 4% in 2013
Fabless companies will grow 9% in 2013
TSMC will grow “in the teens” again in 2013 (TSMC grew 19% in 2012)
20nm is ahead of schedule (production starting in 2013)
16nm FF is yielding ahead of plan based on 128MB SRAM test chip data
10nm FF is in process with a 2nd generation FinFET (GePMOS)
COWOS is in production with multiple tape-outs @ 95% yield
Apple is using TSMC 20nm for their A7 SoC (iPhone6) next year. 16nm is really the 20nm process using FinFETs so it will follow quickly. QCOM and other mobile companies are pushing TSMC on FinFETs due to the 50%+ power savings.
The Intel shills will be eating their words on this one. TSMC is growing double digits and Intel is not.
Wally they will be coming as the market demands. They build to the tech that makes sense. Intel could tale a BIG lesson here. Your cluelessness is always interesting and gets you in so much trouble.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
google last conference call from tsmc...they will not have 16nm until 2016 at the earliest!! And right now, we have heard anything about 20nm, which suggests they might not have 20nm for next year. Without progress in manufacturing process, arm camp are sitting ducks!
Apr 2, 2013 by Charlie Demerjian
Next up is the rather nebulous claim that this allows a company to leverage 16nm efficiencies through magic hand waving and PR distractions or something. To use non-technical terminology, this is basically BS, but the press will eat it up and parrot it back until people think it is ‘truth’. That said, this is nothing that will actually be real to the end user, so they could claim it will bring world peace next week too. The point of all this is that TSMC is calling their next node 16nm not 14nm like the Common Platform guys and Intel.
If they were it would be the aforementioned competitive intelligence goldmine as well as something the public really doesn’t care about. How does the headline, “TSMC announces 20nm tapeout of rev3 of their 6th test structure die, the 19th and final test chip before 20nm is finalized!” sound? I know, heady stuff but even those in competitive intelligence would probably not read the full release before they died of boredom. The same goes for today’s 20nm Coretex-A57 tapeout announcement, it is a nice headline grabber but totally irrelevant to real news or progress.S|A
SAMSUNG producing massive NAND flash volume on 20nm
hey funny guy
so does Sandisk/Toshiba
Samsung will have to fight Sandisk/Toshiba/Hynix and Micron
with Apple gone they won't have much left to spend on SoCs
Samsung is going to blow $8 billion on NAND fab in mainland China
semi equip junkie
TSMC is competing with Samsung and Glofo for ARM customers..
So they must release some pep talk.
When Intel came out with Trigate people likeNenni did not like the shape of the fins yadayada -
did TSMC show one cross section of their fins and how it compares to Intel?
Nope - If it would look good it would be all over the internet
TSMC lost ALTR for a reason - the ARM people like 61 don't see it.
They are extremely naive.
Beside technical difficulties NVDA painted a very bleak picture about wafer price going up ("exponentially") shrinking down from 28nm to 20/14 and it was NVDA that asked for 450 mm wafers (when Intel dares to spend on 450mm "analysts" go ballistic).
Some ARM customers that use 28nm might not even be interested in 20 because of cost and diminishing return.
The "happy days" of 65nm/40nm manufacturing are over - but it still has not sunk in.
The JPM anal mentioned Intel's already difficult roadmap - what does that bonehead of analyst think about the difficulties that TSMC, Samsung and Glofo are facing.
The stupidity of WS analyst seems to be unmatched
How can the "market" be so dumb not seeing this?