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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • wallisweaver wallisweaver Apr 13, 2013 5:04 PM Flag

    Both IDC and Gartner have an awful record on forecasting and counting sales of PCs

    Both IDC and Gartner have an awful record on forecasting and counting sales of PCs. The errors are usually on the low side because they have no good way to count all the emerging market "cottage" assemblers of PCs.

    I received the following message from Paul McWilliams who writes NextInning and is another old semiconductor guy who could teach me a thing or two:

    " Q) Does the severity of the fall off in PC sales surprise you? Does it change the time table for when Intel will be a growth story once again?

    A) The data doesn't surprise me at all. PC sales have been soft for quite a while now, and even as we were entering Q1 expectations were the quarter would be softer than usual. However, that doesn't stop financial writers from leveraging the data for sensational headlines.

    So IDC says PC shipments in the first quarter were down a record 13.9% sequentially to 76.3M units. Gartner disagrees and says PC unit volume was 79.2M, which represents an 11.2% decline. According to Gartner, this is the first time unit volume has been below 80M units since Q2 2009. Both IDC and Gartner say Hewlett-Packard was the big loser, and I believe that. Both also say Lenovo gained the most market share, and I believe that too. What I don't believe is the notion that IDC or Gartner can accurately gauge the number of PCs sold in a quarter.

    From Russ Fischer

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