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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • ashraf.eassa ashraf.eassa May 1, 2013 12:35 PM Flag

    I am short ARMH again


    Not publishing an article about it, because Rob Tanner & Crew would just #$%$ all over me, so I'm going to tell you guys why I'm short now.

    It's simple. Intel announces "Silvermont" micro-architecture on May 6. It will probably include all sorts of comparisons with ARM cores on a performance/watt basis. The press will go wild with it, and ARM will lose its sugar high.

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    • ARMH rallying.
      INTC rallying.

      Market is predicting peaceful coexistence, and therefore underestimating Intel's ability to upset and destroy.

    • Doubled my ARM short for same reason.
      This could be a killing. Stock run up crazy on Concard road trip or scared short..
      What a joke.
      Wondering why Intel is making this presentation now though.
      Word is Silvermont smokes everything else in the market for the foreseeable future.
      Are they allowing him a forum before announcing as CEO.

    • The reason Rob Tanner & Crew jump on you is that many of your arguments are flawed (or just wrong). A case in point is your rubbishing of how ARM's (percent) royalty rate is increasing at the high end. It's been explained to you several times by different people but you don't take it on board.

      Good luck with your short:)

      • 2 Replies to theblueredmonk
      • I missed the discussion. ARMH says they have 980 licensees and are getting about 100 new licensees per year. ARMH says that their royalties are paid typically based on a % of the chip price.

        I imagine the newer licenses are for more modern CPU and are priced higher by ARMH. The newer CPU likely have higher volumes and are "priced" higher than the mature designs.

        I would expect that licenses (now 36%) are a decreasing component of ARMH revenue and royalties (now 53%) are an increasing portion of revenues. Just based on the design cycle lag between licensing and parts that affect royalties.

        ARMH says that their CAGR for licenses through 2020 is expected to be 15% and for royalties 22%.

        If ARMH gets the design wins that they expect and their customers ship the volumes that ARMH expects, their estimates seem to make sense when using their assumptions..

        if there is overcapacity of ARMH CPU and/or price reductions, that will affect ARMH royalty revenues and CAGR negatively.
        If Intel takes design wins or if Intel offers their low end parts at a "other than value pricing", it could also affect ARMH forecasts.

        Innovative business model yields high margins
         Upfront license fee – flexible licensing models
         Ongoing royalties – typically based on a percentage of chip price

      • and therefore ARM is worth 1/5 of Intel. ?

        Intel's Revenues 50 Billion, ARM 1 Billion in 2013.

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