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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • wallisweaver wallisweaver May 9, 2013 8:57 AM Flag

    ARM is Doomed

    There have been opinions offered today that ARM might somehow float above the fray with excessive valuations just about forever. It's not true. Here's why:

    The market always adjusts to economics. Always, always, always. Sure, the market can be incredibly stupid and it can take a long time. The phrase is that the market can stay stupid longer than you can stay solvent. So, one has to be careful. But it always happens and it will with ARM. Bottom line is that it's always about the bottom line. ARM has two very fundamental flaws in its economics that will lead to its doom.

    One: Fabrication. ARM's fabrication roapmap is exceeding flawed. It doesn't have FinFET and won't for years and years. This precludes it being competitive on an ongoing basis. Intel will go two process nodes up at the end of this year. Lack of competitiveness will erode profits and lead to a collapse of the stock price. Nothing ARM can do about it. Not enough time, money and technology to fix the fabrication problem.

    Two: The Fabless Model. This is the reason that the number of ARM foundries has dropped continuously and there are only a couple left. The fabless model doesn't provide technology (like FinFET) or money to build enough capacity. Lack of competitiveness will erode profits and lead to a collapse of the stock price. Nothing ARM can do about it. Not enough time, money and technology to fix the fabless model problem.

    There you have it. ARM is doomed. Two fundamental reasons why profit erosion will lead to collapse of the stock price. No question of if, just a question of when. So, watch the market stay stupid. But don't depend on it to last forever. It won't...

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    • Wally is doomed to the land of mediocrity that matches his trading/investment sklls.

    • You need rehab worse than Lindsay Lohan.

    • It's just plain sad to watch you work around the clock to bash a stock that's gone up 100 percent since you started talking of it's demise. It's the most bizzarre and pathetic thing any message board has ever seen. Congrats, you made history.

    • Intel/ARM Roadmap Comparison
      ARM/Intel Roadmap Comparison

      Intel (All FinFET):

      22nm: Haswell June 2013
      14nm: Broadwell: End of 2013/Start of 2014
      14nm: Skylake: 2015
      10nm: Skymont: 2016
      7nm: 2018
      5nm: 2020

      ARMH

      Planar

      28nm: Production has been increasing but is still insufficient to meet market demand. Substantially all of the production is coming from TSMC, which is a significant bottleneck.

      20nm: Volume production in 2014/2015. TSMC has promised to ramp 20nm faster than 28nm but this appears to be nothing more than rhetoric as 20nm will be yet another level of complexity when trends have show each successive ARM die shrink to ramp significantly slower than the previous.

      FinFET

      14/16nm: ARM foundries will pursue a half-step to FinFET by making it half FinFET and half 20nm. This clearly illustrates their lack of confidence in bringing a full step online in a reasonable time frame. There are so many unknowns with the half-step process, that any prediction of volume production cannot be reliably made.

      Conclusions

      1.) Intel will continue to have significant opportunities for high margin foundry work, as illustrated by the Altera deal.
      2.) Intel's fabrication economics will continue to improve just as ARM's are degrading. ARMs 20nm planar and the half-step to FinFET both have inferior economics to the Intel nodes.
      3.) Intel will reach 450mm wafer implementation well ahead of ARM, giving them significantly improved economic benefits.

      Intel's lead in fabrication and manufacturing is increasing in virtually every area.

 
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