Mon, Sep 15, 2014, 8:57 PM EDT - U.S. Markets closed

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Intel Corporation Message Board

  • intel_fanboy intel_fanboy Jun 6, 2013 8:53 PM Flag

    ARM is no ANd

    I've been thinking about where ARM goes after the race against Intel. ARM tried to enter the PC space/server space without much success. I think if you look at it logically ARM looked like a larger threat some 2015 -17 timeframe if Intel didn't cut them off at the pass. . Now Intel will engage ARM at the tablet phone level and outpace ARM to the point that ARM will find it difficult if not impossible to move down to 20nm and lower. This will throw a major kink in their aggressive expansion plans.

    AMD was a strawman competitor. It was set up as a second source for Intel so that Intel could get government contracts 30 years ago. AMD wasn't really much competition at any point other than the days of 286 processors when you could drop an AMD processors and Intel processors in the same motherboard. That was pretty annoying for Intel.

    ARM on the otherhand is a cleverly designed RISC processor. But come on, we've seen RISC come and go before. What was different this time was that the ARM ecosystem developed exceptionally well over the last five years. I believe by 2016 ARM will be technically defeated in the high end low power processor market by Intel. But they will still be around, and probably larger than ever. I found that their growth cycle has been fairly lazy, mostly growth from new products Apple introduced and incremental sales. I think ARMs largest opportunity is the under $5 processor market. Anything that has a circuit can use an ARM processor. "The internet of things" as Warren East suggested. Instead of doing an AMD dying on the vine move, ARM will have to reinvent itself, but I have a feeling that there is big business in very low end embedded processors in ARM's future. Another question, can Intel manufacture all the processors for smartphones for the entire world ? I wonder if anything but the top 30% of this market is desirable anyway? It's not a question of what Intel can get, but rather, what it wants.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • The "battle" between the ARM ISA and Intel (x86) has yet to start and will last the bulk of the rest of the decade. Personally, I still think it can be a win-win for both.

      Currently there is only a small crossover (Intel low end V ARM high end) in the CPU space and this will expand over the next few years as is it becomes more about the SoC and total solution rather than just the CPU alone. It's firms like QCOM and not ARM (the company) that Intel has to "worry" about.

      As it stands today - in terms of shipping product (and thus market share) - neither side has really done anything yet (in terms of taking market share). Despite all the positive noise about Intel's app processor SoC's for smart phones, she's still has less than 1% of the market. It's the same for the ARM ISA server push, well less than 1%.

      • 2 Replies to theblueredmonk
      • as is it becomes more about the SoC and total solution rather than just the CPU alone. It's firms like QCOM and not ARM (the company) that Intel has to "worry" about.

        FYI
        Intels voltage regulator integrated as many as discrete 7 chips, Intel "integrated" DRAM via 2.5D, they are working on integrating RF - it's a myth that Intel is behind in SoCs just like
        x86 is too power hungry - how many years did the ARM camp beat this drum?.

        Why did Samsung select Intel SoC - because 22nm is around the corner and they probably got sneak preview of 14nm - ARM's FinFet is a hoax - it's 20nm design rules.
        In order to obtain FinFet to match Intel they need to spend megatons on capex while getting very little die shrink going from 20nm planar to 14/16nm FinFet.

        Nobody will be able to match Intels cost structure
        and I can only laugh at the analyst clowns from Piper et al -

        who is running A15 in volume production NOBODY

      • I agree. But it's going to stand that Intel will be successful growing in smartphone and tablets. ARMH has great designs that their FABs won't be able to execute on. The FABs are ARM's weak link and the most excellent opportunity Intel has to neutralize their threat. My point is that it won't matter for ARM because they have so many different avenues of growth. An 800MhZ ARM processor at 60nm is super old technology, but just think about how cheaply that they can be made. Throw it into a $10 SoC and it can go into appliances, car radios, and other gadgets. Even though it's old technology think about how much that little thing can do, especially if it's designed to only do a few tasks. This is magnitudes larger in scope than all the server business ARMH could ever realistically hope to get. Though I agree with Wallis most of the time I don't think that Intel wants every last ARM processor sale at the super low end. I don't believe Intel's intent is to take out ARMH from the market. Instead they are simply trying to neutralize ARMH's threat.

    • Sure, ARM can probably exist at the low end but it won't command the fees it does now as ASP's and margins shrink and won't have that huge P/E ratio either. It will make a nice $7 stock.

      This is, of course, if Intel doesn't develop such highly superior economics through die shrinks and 450mm wafers that there isn't any room at the bottom either. If ARM is still working on trying to develop FinFET when Intel is in volume production on 7nm fabrication, then stick a fork in ARM. They'll be done - even at the low end. That gives 'em about 4 years. They will be lucky to make it...

      • 1 Reply to wallisweaver
      • I am really questioning if the ARM foundries will be able to afford to see the day that FinFET gets launched. To be able to afford such a very high cost there has to be a reasonable amount of business at a reasonable amount of profit. As mentioned before not nearly enough money makes it back to the foundries. The costs are staggering, and they barely managed to pull off 28nm. Do I think ARM could eventually come up with 16nm FinFET? Yes, eventually. If Intel never entered their market. Given enough time all those bold predictions from ARM could have come true, ARM could have eaten Intel's lunch. Instead they are seeing the wrath of Intel with surgical precision come into their market and cherry pick it. The question is no longer "if" the day will happen but how deep Intel will go into the market:"

        I also think that ARMH is a fabulous $7 stock with a $35 fairy tale premium. Many years ago I was trying to decide to buy Microsoft or Intel. I went Intel because I felt we were entering a hardware era. What we've seen is that people time and time again will place down good money on good, new exciting hardware. Little devices that inform you that send you text messages to your phone to let you know the power is out at your house may be the type of thing people will buy if it's cheap enough. Keep in mind the more of these $2 processors there are floating around the more servers they will need. Intel is going to fill it's factories up with profitable business first. I do believe Warren East was right, there may come a day where you are surrounded by tons and tons of low level ARM processors in your life. It's where ARM could go to grow in realistic terms without having cutting edge hardware. It was a sober direction for ARMH to head after looking into his crystal ball. But first we will have year of people coming on this board saying "You guys just don't understand, ARMH has this secret design that will leapfrog Intel next year."

    • These boards need more of these kinds of posts.

 
INTC
34.54-0.08(-0.23%)Sep 15 4:15 PMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.
Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
NasdaqGSMon, Sep 15, 2014 4:00 PM EDT
Tesla Motors, Inc.
NasdaqGSMon, Sep 15, 2014 4:00 PM EDT
Netflix, Inc.
NasdaqGSMon, Sep 15, 2014 4:00 PM EDT