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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • bacbacker bacbacker Jul 1, 2013 10:12 PM Flag

    ANALysts really have it wrong

    Stacy Smith:

    "So let’s start with the data center. It’s about 20% of our revenue. We’ve said we expect
    it to be double-digit growth. So if you just do simple manager math, that says it’s just
    the data center is giving a couple of points, maybe a smidge more than that, to the
    company’s growth rate that we’ve said is low single digits. So just the data center kind
    of gets us there."

    another quote:
    "you really just need seasonal from where we are in order to achieve the low single digit revenue growth."

    [Aside from the points above, you have to think that a lot of corporations and consumers have been waiting on Haswell to upgrade. So I expect a strong XP/Windows 7 refresh coming for second half. Also, for this holiday season, Intel launches Silvermont for microserver and tablet market. From Intel's presentation in May, Silvermont will clearly outperform current arm products including the tegra 4 and snapdragon 800. People forget that the tablet market is a new market for Intel. There will be tons of Bay Trail-based Android and Windows tablets coming into the market this holiday season. Add all this with all the added revenue coming from smartphones. There is no way Intel misses their target of single digit growth this year.]

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    • great post

    • I agree with you but these analysts gives me an opportunity to buy more of the stock, which I just DID !!!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I rarely follow the analysts since from my experience 90% have an agenda hence they 'show' only one side of the picture and blow it out of proportion. That being said some CEOs that work for bonus do the same, hence I'm skeptic and take everything with a grain of salt.

      Motely fools are plain wicked and dishonest all in the name of freedom of speech, if you will.

      Intel was always on the conservative safe side of things and they usually do better then they project.

    • Hans Mosesmann is out of his mind. Here's his argument. He says that assuming a) Intel's data center business grow by 13% in 2013 and b) Intel's other non-PC client segments grow 3%. If those two items are met, then in order for Intel to meet it's single digit revenue growth, then Intel's PC Client sales can *only* decline by 4%. HE THINKS THAT A 4% DECLINE IN PC CLIENT SALE IS TOO AGRESSIVE!!! LOL! Furthermore, he thinks AMD will take market share from Intel! Seriously, this guy is friggen out of his mind!

      Reality check:
      1) Amd has *nothing* to gain market share with
      2) Windows 8 didn't have general availability until end of October 2012 and MS delayed drivers for CloverTrail so OEMs did not have time to bring touch-enabled products to market for the holiday shopping season. And of course, first half of this year have really been to clear out old Ivy Bridge inventory in preparation for Haswell. This year OEMs will be ready with Haswell and Silvermont for the back-to-school and big holiday shopping season. Check out just a few of the new Haswell designs so far: Asus Transformer Book Trio, Samsung ATIV Q, Dell XPS 11, MacBook Air. All with all-day battery life. The Trio and Q have better displays and has Dual boot functionalities. There are many more products on the way including refresh of MS Surface Pro, Lenovo Yoga, etc. And then we have Y-series Haswell products coming out too. We are talking about fanless tablets and 2for1s. As for Bay Trail; expect many Android and Windows 8 tablets that will have superior performance and battery life over arm counterparts. It's going to be a big second half for Intel, there is no doubt about it. In fact, I would not be surprise to see a PC Client *increase* by end of 2013.

      • 1 Reply to bacbacker
      • Mosesmann is an idiot of the highest order. My first post on the NVDA yahoo board in early 2011 was in outrage to his $40 price target on a stock that had already inflated on hype and fluff to $26. I gave all the correct reasons why it would not get there and further more gave a very accurate price target of $14 in a subsequent post to a notorious poster, daysofshred000000, who repeated the same $40 boast. Mosesmann has already lost the right to be taken seriously as he has not got a real clue about the industry about which he pontificates. Nothing more than a paid mouthpiece and a bad one at that.

    • Here's simple math to show just how off these ANALysts are:

      These ANALysts have the current average earnings estimate for Q3 at $0.50.

      Intel has already stated that gross margins for the last 3 quarters (including the just ended Q2) were hit by one time excess capacity charges and startup cost for 14nm FAB upgrade. So GM for last 3 quarters were as follows: 58%, 56% and 58% (estimate for Q2). Intel also said that by Q3, margins will be back to normal ( 60%). They also guided margins for 2013 to be 60%. This means Q3 and Q4's margins will average at least 63%. Revenue was guided for single digit growth, so will be at least $54 billion. This means revenue for Q3 and Q4 will average over $14.3 billion each.

      For comparison, in Q3 2011, Intel's revenue was $14.2 billion and GM was 63.4%. For that quarter, Intel earned $0.65. This is $0.15 above the current Q3 estimate!

    • good points..Intel will easily make their target for the year

 
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