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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • jflaherty jflaherty Jul 3, 2013 8:36 PM Flag

    This is my favorite quote from Paul Otellini re: TMSC and 22nm and smaller production

    At a recent invstment conference Paul Otellini plainly said that TSMC has reversed engineered Intel's processes, with increasing difficulty, for decades. He went on to say that at 22nm the ability to reverse engineer is now gone. The devices are so small that only a handful of transistors can be seen under the most powerful scanning microscopes....a handful out of billions, how do you do old fashioned trouble shooting? Even TSMC's decision to go gate last was based on Intel's decision to go gate last.

    I live in Taiwan. The Taiwanese love to copy. Saying, "Go ahead. Try. Good luck." is awesome. TSMC has based their timelines on past abilities to reverse-engineer INTC processes. Now that ability is gone. The investment needed 5 years ago wasn't made (thank you Russ Fischer for that info). They are sitting around the Board Room looking at each other waiting for some one to come up with a solution.

    10:1 odds says the aging CEO Morris Chang steps down next year to spend more time with his family.

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    • Ottelini also said that it took over 3 years for competition to catch up to High K metal gate process that intel perfected. But still is not as good as Intel's.
      As for the trigate versions, he said he doesn't think they will ever figure it out.
      The general idea is that if TSMC does everything right, it may still take about 5 years to do what Intel is doing now. Still though, the perfection may not be as well as Intel's.
      The only real question left for Intel sell side analysts is this:
      Will the ability to put more features on future computing products matter, or will the same old
      ARM based products be enough?
      I think Windows answered that question with the failure of RT.
      In the meantime, this market is a complete joke for allowing days like today bringing the stock down.
      No reason for Intel stock to drop today. Some major holder just decided he wants out. That's it.
      He will be sorry!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • TSMC is falling further and further behind but you wouldn't know it by listening to their press releases. The bottom line is that TSMC does not have a production ready FinFet process and I am doubting whether they ever will.

    • 10:1 odds says the aging CEO Morris Chang steps down next year to spend more time with his family.

      actually Morris retired several years ago but he was called back because his successor did not cut it.
      Around the 45nm node (when Intel introduced HKMG) TSMC was supposed to fab 45nm Atoms for Intel - but Intel pulled out.
      I don't think Intel is that late - back than Intel was well aware they would end up on collision course with TSMC.....

      Reversed engineering:
      interestingly SMIC (mainland China) did this to TSMC - they copied everything from TSMC to make chips for BRCM.
      SMIC espionaged every little detail from TSMC - they hired engineers, they knew the exact specifications of process gas and chemicals used in manufacturing
      ggogle it - very intersting reading -
      of course SMIC caught a bloody nose

      • 1 Reply to semi_equip_junkie
      • I have no doubt about China's espionage capabilities. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe this is why INTC does not patent everything they do. They don't want to give competitors a road map to follow. It would be nice to think that the 22nm process, and smaller, are too small to reverse engineer, but I can't underestimate the Taiwanese and Chinese ability to copy. Either way, it will take time to figure out.... time INTC will use to move to 14nm. TSMC will still only be at a functional 28nm when INTC is putting out 14nm. Also, INTC is the only company that can maintain the cost savings per die shrink. By Christmas, TSMC customers will be waiting for product. By this time next year, INTC will be the only chip that's stronger, faster, cheaper.

 
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