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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • wallisweaver wallisweaver Aug 29, 2013 2:56 PM Flag

    Just Saw A Slide

    I just saw a slide from AnAndTech that shows the costs to build a new state-of-the-art fab with related necessary annual revenue as compared to the revenue levels of those in the business.

    While a new fab has recently run in the $10 billion range, the cost to build one in 2015 (without 450mm wafers) is in the $15 billion range.

    The impact of this is that is leaves only two companies that can afford this level of capital expenditures: Samsung and Intel. TSMC will be dropping off the list of those companies.

    This clearly illustrates ARM's looming fabrication crisis as the number of ARM foundries at the top end has already dropped to just a few. It now appears that by 2015 there will only be one that can keep up. And that's just the money side. Samsung has the money but not the technology to compete at the high end.

    And this is without 450mm wafers. The bottom line is that Intel is going to own the processor business at both the middle and high-end by 2015. ARM will be the new AMD and relegated to the low end.

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    • dnenni@ymail.com dnenni Sep 28, 2013 8:51 AM Flag

      Not true. Samsung said they are building 14nm fabs for under $10B in Texas. TSMC builds giga fabs in Taiwan for less than that since they get big breaks from the Taiwanese government. Look at the TSMC financials.

    • I just saw a slide from AnAndTech that shows the costs to build a new state-of-the-art fab with related necessary annual revenue as compared to the revenue levels of those in the business.

      While a new fab has recently run in the $10 billion range, the cost to build one in 2015 (without 450mm wafers) is in the $15 billion range.

      The impact of this is that is leaves only two companies that can afford this level of capital expenditures: Samsung and Intel. TSMC will be dropping off the list of those companies.

      This clearly illustrates ARM's looming fabrication crisis as the number of ARM foundries at the top end has already dropped to just a few. It now appears that by 2015 there will only be one that can keep up. And that's just the money side. Samsung has the money but not the technology to compete at the high end.

      And this is without 450mm wafers. The bottom line is that Intel is going to own the processor business at both the middle and high-end by 2015. ARM will be the new AMD and relegated to the low end.

 
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