Dan Niles: Tapering and the Global Economy
by Paul McLellan
Published on 09-25-2013 03:21 PM
Yesterday was Dan Niles quarterly review that he does for GSA. As always he starts from the big picture of the world economy and works his way to a semiconductor forecast. The focus of this quarter was whether the world economy is strong enough for the US to "taper" and reduce the amount of quantitative easing (aka flooding the US market with liquidity).
The semiconductor industry is a flat $300B and has been for 5+ years. The question is who will get a bigger piece this year? The SoC companies and foundries have been eating more than their share and I expect this to continue. Either way it is still a $300B pie so where is the growth going to come from? Tablets are eating PCs. Phones are eating tablets and PCs. Wearables will eat phones, tablets, and PCs with smaller margins.
What is the next big growth technology after SoCs?