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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Oct 21, 2013 3:37 PM Flag

    Wallis, RE: ARMH

    I'm tempted to buy some put options on ARMH today.
    Do you think it's better to buy now or wait for a possible hype
    after earnings to get puts cheaper.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • I just checked Yahoo yesterday for the earnings date and it didn't show anything. D'oh.

      If I had had more time I would have considered a straddle. The best bet seems to be that ARM is going to move a lot is some direction. And probably in both. But we are out of time at the moment. Best to see what happens tomorrow.

      For me, there are two clear catalysts in place for the big ARM drop: One is Bay Trail traction and the other is the Merrifield/LTE release. I would think timing some buying around Intel events and the release of new information would be a good strategy.

      Here are the coming events:

      October 22, 2013: Apple Event with MacBook Pro Upgrade to Haswell
      November 21, 2013: Intel Investor Meeting
      January 7-10, 2014: CES (The 2014 International Consumer Electronics Show) in Las Vegas
      February 24 -27, 2014: MWC (Mobile World Congress)

      • 1 Reply to wallisweaver
      • I think though, quite a bit premium is placed into upcoming earnings. To me also, that would mean nothing. Ashraf was suggesting wait till after earnings. It's some play money so I'll just wait.
        If it takes off after earnings, I will look into adding a little more on puts. What I have now is gains from playing some ARM puts anyways. I will look at price action and if it is pretty high, I will look to add prior to Intel investor meeting. I'm playing the April 2014 puts anyways, so it will cover all of the potential catalyst to hurt ARM stock.
        Thanks for your input.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I just bought a couple of the Nov $50 puts out of my Las Vegas money. Earnings are before market opens tomorrow. 2am ET.

      • 1 Reply to alexander.dumbass
      • "I just bought a couple of the Nov $50 puts out of my Las Vegas money. Earnings are before market opens tomorrow. 2am ET"

        [This will be an interesting one to watch. For ARM it's all about the future and guidance rather than quarterly results. Given the growing uncertainties, ARM's fabrication crisis, increasing competition, the maturation of the mobility markets, and the lack of FinFET, it seems impossible for the market to find a triple digit P/E prudent. We know there aren't going to be any significant 20nm shipments in 2014 and there are some litigation issues as well. There just isn't enough Kool-Aid on the planet to continue to support this level of irrational exuberance.]

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