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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • wallisweaver wallisweaver Oct 23, 2013 12:18 PM Flag

    What We (Still) Know Now

    Not much has changed since yesterday (some Apple and ARM updates):

    1.) Bay Trail and Windows 8.1 are going to be a big success.
    2.) Intel is going to cut significantly into ARM's tablet market share. Apple did Intel a big favor by pricing its new products so high.
    3.) The RT Surface is a badly conceived and executed product. It's priced badly and this will likely be the last nail in its coffin. The Surface Pro is really priced too high. Look for companies like Lenovo, Asus and Dell to eat Microsoft's lunch with superior Intel-based products.
    4.) The Intel roadmap looks really good going forward with 64-bit Bay Trail, Android and dual boot products coming soon. And then 14nm FinFET products will arrive to hammer ARM like they have never been hammered before. In the midst of this Intel is going to roll out Merrifield/LTE smartphone solutions and keep growing server and datacenter revenues.
    5.) ARM 20nm products are going to be a significant no show in 2014. AMD told us this. When product does start to arrive look for Apple to gobble up most of the capacity, creating a massive squabble with Qualcomm, Nvidia and AMD. Those ARM shops after that will have few or no options - other than to move to Intel.
    6.) Today's and yesterday's market results told us that not everyone is drinking the ARM Kool-Aid. Their massive P/E is unsupportable going forward and its a wonder that the stock hasn't crashed worse given that they gave in-line guidance for Q4 after a huge move up in the stock price recently. That move up in the stock price should have been accompanied by a similar one with earnings estimate and guidance. Or the stock price should move back down. Way back down. Well, it's moved down by about 11 percent.

    Even worse, ARM's P/E is calculated without removing stock-based compensation from earnings. This means that the P/E is really a lot higher than what everyone is showing. 93 today per Yahoo.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • 1.) Bay Trail and Windows 8.1 are going to be a big success. Measured in terms of margin I am not so sure.

      2.) Intel is going to cut significantly into ARM's tablet market share. Apple did Intel a big favor by pricing its new products so high. The high Apple price can be dropped by market dictates.

      3.) The RT Surface is a badly conceived and executed product. It's priced badly and this will likely be the last nail in its coffin. The Surface Pro is really priced too high. Look for companies like Lenovo, Asus and Dell to eat Microsoft's lunch with superior Intel-based products. Agreed.

      4.) The Intel roadmap looks really good going forward with 64-bit Bay Trail, Android and dual boot products coming soon. And then 14nm FinFET products will arrive to hammer ARM like they have never been hammered before. In the midst of this Intel is going to roll out Merrifield/LTE smartphone solutions and keep growing server and datacenter revenues. Mostly agree, but the competition is smarter and hungrier than one may count on.

      5.) ARM 20nm products are going to be a significant no show in 2014. AMD told us this. When product does start to arrive look for Apple to gobble up most of the capacity, creating a massive squabble with Qualcomm, Nvidia and AMD. Those ARM shops after that will have few or no options - other than to move to Intel. A fairly good arguement.

      6.) Today's and yesterday's market results told us that not everyone is drinking the ARM Kool-Aid. Their massive P/E is unsupportable going forward and its a wonder that the stock hasn't crashed worse given that they gave in-line guidance for Q4 after a huge move up in the stock price recently. That move up in the stock price should have been accompanied by a similar one with earnings estimate and guidance. Or the stock price should move back down. Way back down. Well, it's moved down by about 11 percent. Momentum plays are not easy to time on the up side or down side, it could take years for ARM to go down

      • 1 Reply to gowiththegreen
      • 1.) Bay Trail and Windows 8.1 are going to be a big success. "Measured in terms of margin I am not so sure."

        [Stacy Smith said there was enough action on the higher margin products to offset the lower margin products so that overall margins would be fine.]

        2.) Intel is going to cut significantly into ARM's tablet market share. Apple did Intel a big favor by pricing its new products so high. "The high Apple price can be dropped by market dictates."

        [When was the last time that Apple ever lowered prices in reaction to something happening in the marketplace?]

        6.) Today's and yesterday's market results told us that not everyone is drinking the ARM Kool-Aid. Their massive P/E is unsupportable going forward and its a wonder that the stock hasn't crashed worse given that they gave in-line guidance for Q4 after a huge move up in the stock price recently. That move up in the stock price should have been accompanied by a similar one with earnings estimate and guidance. Or the stock price should move back down. Way back down. Well, it's moved down by about 11 percent. Momentum plays are not easy to time on the up side or down side, "it could take years for ARM to go down."

        [The last 15 dollar plunge in ARM happened very rapidly.]

    • Blah, blah, blah, what we know is that you're still underwater on the ARMH based 44.00 puts and were ranting on that ARMH couldn't hold 40.00, it then proceeded to rise by 12.00, or 30 percent while INTC, in comparison, barely moved.

    • We don't know anything about what the stock price is going to do. Earnings were not great, so we have to wait another quarter. Your guess is as good as mine and I have no idea. I do agree with you that ARM is going down. The boyz have had their fun with it.

 
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