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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • dnenni@ymail.com dnenni Nov 3, 2013 6:11 PM Flag

    Here's The Evidence That The Tech Sector Is In A Massive Bubble

    This is an article from Business Insider. Silicon Valley is the tech hub, I have worked here for 30 years, and believe this to be true. It may not be as bad as the dotcom bubble from 1997-2000 but it is coming, absolutely.

    I'm part of an Angle fund and we are seeing bubble behavior all over the place. SnapChat has $0 revenue and is raising money at a $3B+ valuation? That is just insane.

    I'm wondering if any of you financial types agree. Are we in for a big correction? Or will the stock market continue to trade at all time highs in 2014?

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    • Numerous social media and biotech stocks might be considered in bubble territory but old line tech companies like Intel have valuations well grounded in economic reality.

    • if that were true, wouldn't Andy have sold a ton of his shares.....................

      • 1 Reply to tiglet2l
      • Andy exercised a stock option and sold the same day. If he had not sold the shares, he would have write a $14,000,000 check to broker to BUY the shares. I don't know why he "needed to" or "decided to" exercise and sell the option shares. They were not set to expire (10 years) until April.

        Andy exercised and disposed of option shares.
        If you imply that he "sold" shares, then it is only fair to point out that he also BOUGHT them on the same day too.

    • Wallstreet doesn't get nor respect the tech industry. They can understand that ARMH sold for under $10 a share, then over $20 a share, then around $50 a share. When they figure out that they are holding an $8 stock with a $42 premium most of the tech stocks will suffer. I don't know about Intel however. The P/E is low and their returns are proven. You may see a trend to move toward the more proven names after getting burned by one too many Cinderella stories.

    • Credit Suisse global equity strategist Andrew Garthwaite.
      Despite numerous headwinds, the stock market has been incredibly resilient in 2013, and the S&P 500 is up over 23% year-to-date.
      In his latest note to clients, Credit Suisse global equity strategist Andrew Garthwaite identifies four catalysts for a correction in the stock market:
      Overall, we continue to believe that equities would have a meaningful correction (i.e. 10% or more) only after one of the following events occurs:
      (1) There is a clear monetary shock with interest rates rising: we think this is likely to be a mid-2015 event in the US;
      (2) Equities become clearly expensive against bonds (i.e. the US 10-year bond yield rises above 3.5%);
      (3) Risk appetite indicators hit euphoria;
      (4) A global macro shock (the most likely candidates being a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China or political shocks in peripheral Europe).
      Despite the lack of any real threats to stocks on the radar from Garthwaite's point of view, the strategist believes the S&P 500's advance will stagnate in the near term:
      We stick to our long-standing overweight of equities and our end-2014 target of 1,900 on the S&P 500. Markets have surpassed our end-2013 target (of 1,730 on the S&P 500) and we see a heightened risk of near-term consolidation as:
      ■ Some tactical indicators are signalling caution: The bull/bear ratio, director selling, and the gap between sector risk appetite and overall risk appetite have all reached extreme levels associated with marginal market falls on our back-tests. In addition, corporate net buying has slowed to zero (from 3% of market cap), again a precursor to consolidation.
      ■ Earlier Fed tapering than the market expects: we agree with our US economics team that tapering is more likely to start in January than in March, largely because the market is too pessimistic on 2014 US growth prospects.
      ■ Earnings revisions have underperformed macro momentum.
      ■ Growth momentum: macro surprises have yet to recover p

    • blair.wagner@snet.net blair.wagner Nov 3, 2013 9:06 PM Flag

      So what else is new, seems I have seen this movie before. Markets will fluctuate. Play me.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • are you sure you're not on drugs?

    • "I'm wondering if any of you financial types agree. Are we in for a big correction? Or will the stock market continue to trade at all time highs in 2014?"

      [Anyone who looks at ARMH knows what a bubble looks like. But with the US, European, and Chinese economies all improving, a tech collapse seems unlikely and it would be the high P/E companies most at risk anyway.The ARM big boys are most at risk because of the exposure to a maturing mobility market with dropping ASP's, margins and profits. Just look at TSMC's projected revenue drop of 10.5 percent in Q4. Intel doesn't have to worry about this because any mobility business is gravy and they just take market share from ARM incumbents - they aren't in danger of losing market share.

      You should worry, Nenni. You might have to buy your own meals in the future instead of relying on the ARM banquet circuit.

      BTW, can you please give us a recap of your educational background. You don't have anything to hide there, do you?]

 
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