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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • intel_fanboy intel_fanboy Dec 7, 2013 1:35 PM Flag

    2015 stock price without growth

    I am looking at the year 2014 in my crystal ball and I can't make heads or tails out of what's to come. We do have that long awaited XP upgrade but on the other hand there could be more economic woes and a possible Wall Street correction. If you predict gloom and doom Intel can go down to $16 a share, but the rest of the market would be in the toilet as well.

    The rate of PC sales declines are slowing down and 2014 may be a turn around. If you believe consumers have replaced the PC with the tablet and smartphone then that would be a factor. If you think that there is a lot of pent up consumer demand and consumers will be buying more PCs then that would drive growth.

    I'm a bit more positive about 2014 than Intel may be a the current time. But, lets run on their assumption that sales remain flat for 2014. In order for the stock to increase the multiplier needs to go up. This is caused by people believing that future returns will be greater than they are now. Keeping in mind that the working assumption is a flat 2014 do you think the P/E ratio will increase in 2014 driving the stock price up even without a dividend increase?

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    • "I am looking at the year 2014 in my crystal ball and I can't make heads or tails out of what's to come. "

      Easy... INtel is coming out with something next year... the competition is thru...

      "The rate of PC sales declines are slowing down and 2014 may be a turn around. "

      Based on hopes & prayers...

      "there is a lot of pent up consumer demand and consumers will be buying more PCs then that would drive growth."

      Based on hopes & prayers...

      "sales remain flat for 2014. In order for the stock to increase the multiplier needs to go up. This is caused by people believing that future returns will be greater than they are now."

      To bring your crystal ball into focus, INtel will be forced to open its fabs.
      Result will be beyond positive and returns will trump x86 revenues.
      History will record Brian Krzanich as brilliant for recognizing the inflection points.
      You can thank ARM...

      • 2 Replies to getanid61
      • 'Result will be beyond positive and returns will trump x86 revenues.'

        You are just blabbering your big uneducated mouth off with more bandwagon BS. What ARM designs at what asp and volume will Intel need to get to match the return on x86 Core PC/Servers where the blended asp is over $100. Remember foundries only get $5-10 for each ARM chip produced and die sizes will shrink further reducing prices. Intel will need 10-20x the ARM volume just to match x86 revenues nevermind trump them. Idiot.

      • "To bring your crystal ball into focus, INtel will be forced to open its fabs.
        Result will be beyond positive and returns will trump x86 revenues."

        The newest ARM talking point. Intel will wake up one day and say "Wow, we've been missing the boat with ARM, look at all these great revenues, who needs x86?" It will be ARM revenues to fund Intel "Bribes" as you like to call them. ARM is financing Intel's entrance into mobile and it's gain in market share in x86.

    • "We do have that long awaited XP upgrade but on the other hand there could be more economic woes and a possible Wall Street correction."

      [We are seeing quite a few metrics pointing towards improved economic conditions, especially in the US. Wall Street is desperately trying to manufacture a correction but it's hard to see the need when we have numbers like we did this last week.

      Intel could have 5-10 percent earnings growth just on economic improvement. ]

      • 1 Reply to wallisweaver
      • I'm seeing that as well but it could be one black swan event like problems in the middle east that could throw a wrench into things. I'm thinking that despite the bashers best efforts Intel's "dead money" story has gotten old. This alone may push the P/E up a few points. But i do see mild growth. A simple P/E growth of 2 points would bring the price up to the high 28's. 6% growth and a P/E of 15 would take the stock over $30. Thus a 30% growth the stock isn't unreasonable. I've also been noticing the lows Intel hit this past week was in the mid 23's. It used to be in the mid 21's. My guess is that Intel will spend the better part of next year running from 25 to 28. But a couple of better than expected quarters and a few more big design wins and it will be past 30.

 
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