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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • G__O__D G__O__D Oct 23, 1997 8:49 PM Flag

    INTC not dead money!

    This seems to indicate that not everyone thinks INTC is dead



    Tuesday October 21 7:47 PM EDT
    Company Press Release

    Strong PC Outlook over 4-5 Quarters Should Buoy Technology Stocks, Industry Guru Murphy
    Predicts

    SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 21, 1997--Worldwide strength in the personal computer sales and affiliated supplier businesses bode well for technology
    stocks over the next 4-5 quarters, a leading industry guru said today.

    Michael Murphy, editor of the California Technology Stock Letter, said that despite Intel Corp's (NASDAQ:INTC) recent cautionary pronouncements about revenue
    growth, ``Everywhere else we check we're finding the PC business is very strong and should remain strong for the next four quarters as worldwide the conversion to
    Windows 95 and Windows NT continues.''
    ``Intel is very careful and always tells analysts what its customers are telling them,'' Murphy said. ``But what needs to be known is that Intel's customers are changing the
    model they use in ordering. Many more are following Dell Computer (NASDAQ:DELL) and Compaq's (NYSE:CPQ) lead and following a build-to-suit strategy.''

    Further, according to Murphy, many PC retailers are adopting a ``just in time'' distribution model to tighten the retail channel such that retailers will re-order PCs as they
    are sold off the shelves. This reduces the level of inventory exposure.

    ``Also, it gives the PC maker the opportunity to order the specific chips the retail customers want,'' Murphy said. ``If Pentium II machines are popular, they'll order
    Pentium II chips, etc.''

    Murphy predicts Intel will announce ``sometime in November'' that its revenue projections will be better than earlier thought. By then, he said, the inventory adjustments
    will have been absorbed and the underlying strength of the overall PC market will prevail.

    Murphy believes other chip makers, including Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD) and Cyrix (NASDAQ:CYRX), ``will ship all they can produce because PC
    makers want alternatives to Intel chips.'' But production problems remain a hazard for the second-tier chipmakers, he cautioned.

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    • According to several sources from teh street and Barrons, Intel is not in good situation. CPQ has already informed them to go back to make more cheap chips (which Intel doesn't like) and AMD and Cyrix are posting serious competition. Talking about DELL,
      they are having serious problems with more and more low-end orders and it should not be long before they collapse. PC makers are having serious problems now. The chip makers are having problems (INTC, AMD). Disk-drive makers are having problems (SEG, WDC). Direct PC makers GTW, and MU are having problems. SUNW and IBM are saying the the workstation business are not going as they expected. You connect the dots and it's clear that the PC makers are having problems. It won't be long for DELL
      and CPQ to experience the collapse.

    • Wow! 2000 shares of Intel! How does it feel to have so much and
      watch your investment go from 103 to 80? But...hey...it was
      only 200 shares 5 years ago. Intel was a terrific stock.

      I owned it and sold a couple months ago in the 90's.
      I recently bought Intel Oct 87 1/2 puts and made out
      with a 45% profit...in about 2 weeks.

      You can make money both ways. Since I believe Intel is dead
      money for the next 2-3 quarter, I will be buy on dips to the
      70's & 60's and selling in the 80's...only couple thousands shares at a time. 50% of my position is in CASH :-).

      Selling covered calls to average down the initial INTC purchase
      might also be a good strategy.

      Good luck.

    • The dropping price of INTC in the last few sessions is from the market environment as a whole. If you are in the market and you are still holding some stocks I bet that some of your stocks are dropping too. If you own some high-tech stocks, they are
      probably dropping more than the market. If there is no Hong Kong crisis, Intel is not going to sell around $81 now. I did not see your warnings before the third quarter earnings announcement in this tread. It appears that you could not predict the market either. Hindsight is always very easy to say. One thing that I am very happy is that my 200 shares of INTC has grown to 2000 shares over 5 years. If INTC goes down, the whole technology sector will go down too. So if you are very bearish for
      INTC, you need to move the money out of the technology sector not just out of INTC. If the whole market is very bad, you need to pull all your money out of the stock market. Otherwise you will be hurt too.

    • I agree Intel's Marketing is the key. How else are they selling
      their Pentium II at a 66% premium over others brands?
      They need to pay for the marketing. The majority of their consumers don't know they can get better performance chips
      at minus the 66%. Intel probably spent more advertising $
      than the combination of their competitiors their customers
      is paying for it by paying the 66% premium.

      This is quickly changing as more benchmarks information (free)
      and ads (IBM) start hitting the streets. I'm seeing more
      Cyrix and AMD logo everyday in the papers and mag.

      "Intel inside" and funky colored bunny people are not cutting
      it anymore. Witness the recent earnings downgrades by all the
      analysts. I'm sure there'll be more Intel preannouncements
      before the 4Q earnings are release.

    • Around Oct 14-15 there was a post by an Intel employee
      on Prodigy Money Talk BB. He think Intel is dead money
      for AT LEAST 2-3 quarter.

      Herman So said so. This was his opinion. He vows he
      has no "insider information" and only stated his opinion.

      There's a post on Silcion Investor about a story coming
      out on the WSJ tomorrow about Intel delaying plans
      for the Texas fabs (Fort Worth) because of "slowing demands".

      Just so you know.

      BTW, I don't have any position in Intel whatsoever.

    • >>>Murphy believes other chip makers, including Advanced Micro
      Devices (NYSE:AMD) and Cyrix (NASDAQ:CYRX), ``will ship all
      they can produce because PC
      makers want alternatives to Intel chips.'' But production problems remain a hazard for the second-tier chipmakers, he cautioned.<<<

      Michael Murphy is half wrong<G>. AMD is the having yield problems. So far...I haven't heard anything about Cyrix having
      yield problems. The main problem with Cyrix is they depend
      on IBM & TSMC to provide the fabs. TSMC is building F-I-V-E
      new 300mm fabs. This will help Cyrix with their MediaGX, GXi,
      GXm once the demand really catches on.

      I think Intel is about to lose a good % of their market share
      in 1998.





    • I love this thread. It is getting hot!!!

      cyrix, amd & idti combined won't get to INTC! But imagine this:

      cyrix/nsm/ibm

      amd/(motorola) or (Texas Int.)

      idti/(cisco) or GE

      Chips are going into everything these days. How about put into the mess with a few Jap or Euro consumer elec. giants.

      Pretty soon people might buy these chips in a bag full from JC Penny checkout counters.

      • 1 Reply to hypernerd
      • Next year, Cyrix's flavored chips are coming out as Cayenne and Jalapeno. 300MHz and 400MHz. Red hot.

        AMD's chips are just plain K6 & K7

        Intel's chips are ... Destuches (1998) and MERCED (1999)...MERCED
        sound like they are asking for MERCY<G>.

        CYRX/NSM/IBM/TSM

        AMD/MOT(Maybe)/TXN (Maybe)...IF they can get rid of Jerry's 51%

        IDTI...don't think so.

        Of course, any of the BIG consumer Japanese companies can jump in. My bet is Cyrix's MediaGX chips will score big.

        Already there are talks about using these in consumer electronic
        device. NSM will see to it. WebTV, DVD, HDTV, DSP, etc.

        Microsoft love this consumer devices Windows CE is just waiting
        for homes. Every WIN95 license they sell they get $45. They
        don't care if it's a $3,000 or $500 PC. Think about it<G>.



 
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