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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • bad_smoky98 bad_smoky98 May 30, 1998 12:06 PM Flag

    Intel 7

    Actually..there is one bright stop about
    Intel.
    It's PE ratio is 21, compared to the average for

    the Nasdaq of 44. Actually, if you had some guts,
    Intel
    would probably be a good gamble at 71..or 70 ..per
    share.

    • does anybody know what the purchase price for intc on june 1 was? thanks in advance

    • I see what you're saying..you're trying to value
      the index as a whole rather than the individual
      performance of a specific company relative to a fixed value
      investment like a bond.Now my question to you is what do you
      see of the current situation.To me the cusp like
      shape of the recent trading range is ominous because to
      me it says..there are progressively more sellers
      than buyers begininng as we approached 9200 and
      accelerating as we ride down the back side of the cusp.It is
      unlike the sawtooth pattern that you saw in
      October..denoting volatility or different levels of buyers and
      sellers at different levels,indicative of a healthy
      correction.The way I see it,we will either stagnate here for a
      good while--2-3 months,or we will correct sharply,or
      worst of all we will gradually sell-off.Either of the
      first two scenarios would be ok for the long term
      health of the market.But the third could lead to
      declining assets for a long time to come.What is your take
      on this--and if you know--how exactly does the long
      bond staying under 6% define the terms of a potential
      correction?Thanks for explanation.Good Info.

    • You must teach

    • The model predicts a market index value, not
      total returns. Only retained earnings are available to
      a company for investment.

      The idea behind
      the model is very simple. Suppose you bought a simple
      business, say a child's Kool-aid stand for $10. Say you
      operated the stand for one summer and by the end of the
      summer you had made a total profit of $20. You decide to
      pay $10 of the profit to yourself (thats the
      dividend) and use the other $10 (the retained earnngs) to
      buy another stand. How much is the enterprise worth
      now? We would say $20. (= $10 original value + $10
      retained earnings). Now suppose instead you had foregone
      the dividend. You could then have bought 2 new stands
      and the enterprise would be worth $30 (= $10 original
      value + $20 retained earnings).

      What the model
      says is that over the very long term, the value of the
      S&P500 will rise by an amount roughly equal to the sum
      of all the retained earnings over that
      time.

      For example, in Jan 1871 the S&P500 was at 67 (in
      today's dollars). From 1871 through 1997 the total amount
      of retained earnings has been $859. Thus the model
      value for today is 67+859=926.

    • hi,just checked out your website.lots of
      information ,so,I'll just give you first impressions.i'll go
      back later when I have more time and look harder.

      My first question involves the creation of a
      standard--you term a model value.it has as one of its
      constructs EPS-dividend.That in of itself,creates a false
      analagy between two different periods in the operation of
      the American state capitalist system.The reason is
      that the best stocks of today(or the last 3 years of
      this bull run) have been
      intel,microsoft,cisco,dell.These stocks dont have a dividend so implicitly when
      you compare their movement with say Dupont,GM,GE of
      the early 1900's you are comparing apples and oranges
      because their is a structural difference in the way these
      two sets of stocks deliver value to their
      shareholder.With GE,you get dividends plus share
      appreciation--with Microsoft you get share appreciation only.Thus
      the model has a structural flaw.Also,if you read my
      message to Gersh 54--I asserted that instead of one
      capatalist system here in America--we have acually had at
      least two completely different economic systems--one
      pre--WW2 one post WW2.The concept of micro-economics to
      the Fed chairmen of the 1920's was like brain surgery
      to the doctors of the time--they didn't understand
      interest rate manipulation at that time--and they made
      incorrect judgements that resuslting in
      recessions/depressions regularly.Also,there were real union men back in
      the progressive era--1900-1920.politicians had to
      consider union views in decisions--today with the lack of
      understanding Americans have of more progressive systems like
      Denmark/Sweden being very primitive and completely brainwashed
      against those systems by
      GE/Disney/Westinghouse--politicians of today have passive sheep that they can
      brainwash easily.Americans of today are morons politically
      compared to the working class of the 1920's and
      1930's.Ever read an ida tarbell article--these people were
      after Rockefeller bigtime.Thus,the political
      environment was very different in those days.Thus,i believe
      you are creating intellectual standards that
      encompass too many divergent variables.
      however,it is
      always good to study when the market is overvalued--and
      Gersh 54 is the one who picked this top first as far as
      anyone I know--several weeks ago.So, for sure this study
      is valuable--but the conclusions I dispute.
      What
      I would think would be very interesting--is throw
      out DJIA/SP500---I'm not interested in those
      statistics because a smart investor would only invest in the
      10% best companies in the SP500.I would like to know
      the stock performance of Dupont,GE,and GM---in those
      exact dates you define--and see how they delivered visa
      vi----bonds.That would be very usefull to know the ratio of time
      bonds outperformed GE--except for the 20's--I dont
      think very often--and as I said i believe pre-WW2 can
      be thrown out for our analysis--we are in the post
      WW2 era.Thanks for info--will study it more.Good Luck

    • Job well done.

    • Check out my webpage at: (http://web.net-link.net/~malexan/Stanpoor.html)

      for a detailed examination of bull/bear market cycles and tell me what you think.

    • On 1/1/98 Intel had about 15billion in cash and
      liquid assets. They have only ~5billion now.

      The
      reason for this sharp drop is the conversion of INTCW
      into INTC. That took place 3/13/98. 78 million shares
      that had been on hold at Intel were released. Let me
      expand. For some time Intel had been aquiring stock for
      this conversion process. By the end of Jan 98 they
      still needed to aquire an additional 20 million shares
      for the program, which they bought, driving the price
      of the stock up on the last leg up. Then they did
      the conversion..delivering 78 million shares to the
      marketplace.

      Note that at the time of the announcement of the
      additional 100 million share authorization the company was
      only able to make an additional 29 million worth of
      purchases! The company had only repurchased 22 million
      shares of the allowed 280 million at that time. That
      would mean that the company had enough put contracts
      out there to cover 229 million shares of the
      stock.

      The feeling that I got at the time was that there was
      some concern that the current level of stock price
      would not hold and that additional puts would need to
      be sold.

      Re puts @ 69 ???? I have never seen
      that strike price listed, so I would guess that this
      was an unpublished transaction.

      The report
      that you read was dated 5/12. This was after the April
      experation of options. I believe that Intel sold a large
      quantity of April 75 puts the day after the earnings
      warning (~40,000) along with severl other strikes and
      dates... whatever .. I think that they are now at a low
      point in open options waiting for the drop. When the
      drop takes place they will throw out another put
      barrage which will show just how low they expect the
      stock to go.

      I had estimated, elsewhere, towards
      the end of April, that they had repurchased via puts
      about 20 million shares..I now see that I had
      overestimated.

      We currently have 49 million shares of
      INTC in the market place more than we did on 1/1/98. I
      think that the price is still to high for Intel to be
      able to remove them all.

      Gersh

    • Could you 2 tell me where you get data. Interesting data -- wouldn't mind mining myself but tell me where to go.

      Thanks in advance.

    • I meant outweighs---rather than"is outweighed by"

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