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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • Gersh_54 Gersh_54 Jun 13, 1998 4:49 PM Flag

    Interesting

    Interesting snippet from Barron's concerning
    Chaplinksy and his recent call on Intel...

    Tales from
    the Valley: Earlier this month, Hambrecht & Quist
    chip analyst
    Robert Chaplinsky made an intriguing
    call on Intel. He cut his earnings
    estimates for
    the June quarter to 65 cents from 69 cents and warned
    that
    microprocessor unit sales would be down 8%-10% from the March
    quarter,
    with a 3% drop in average selling prices. Chaplinsky
    cited
    weaker-than-expected retail PC sales, high industry inventories of
    older
    Pentium-based machines and seasonal weakening of European
    sales.

    The comments, coming at a time when Intel's stock had
    already been sliding,
    chopped another healthy slice
    out of the company's market cap. It also got
    the
    Street rumor mill churning.

    Chaplinsky, as it
    happens, came to H&Q about two years ago after a
    six-year
    career at Intel. His last stop there: investor-relations
    manager. Chaplinsky
    contends his tenure at Intel makes
    him the best-informed analyst on the stock,
    and he
    certainly has become influential. There's certainly no
    doubt Chaplinsky
    has good contacts at Intel. But the
    whispering on the Street is that inside Intel,
    there's
    concern Chaplinsky's call was uncannily accurate-that
    perhaps he had
    taken advantage of his Intel
    connections to get information others on the
    Street might
    not have at their disposal. The talk is that Intel
    has begun an
    in-house "witch hunt" to find the
    leaker, and that the company had been
    considering
    pre-announcing its earnings for the quarter, but decided to
    hold
    off when Chaplinsky made his recent
    comments.

    A spokesman for Intel declined to comment on the
    rumors; Chaplinsky
    danced around the issue. "I'm
    pretty comfortable with my work on the
    company," he
    says. "If you read my report, I left a lot of the
    granularity out. It
    wasn't that detailed. If Intel
    speculates that somebody is leaking things to me,
    that
    only verifies the accuracy of my
    work."

    Chaplinsky says he hasn't heard anything from Intel on the
    issue, but notes that
    he's heard from clients that
    "Intel was questioning how come my call was
    so
    right." Chaplinsky won't say exactly where his
    information comes from, but
    notes "there's enough
    information in the marketplace to substantiate
    the
    conclusion we drew."

    Oddly enough, H&Q still rates
    Intel a "buy." Chaplinsky, though, advises
    against
    touching the stock until the company provides some
    information about
    second-quarter results. He thinks Intel
    has three choices: pre-announce, miss
    the quarter
    or pull in some business from the third quarter-and
    then provide
    cautious guidance on the next quarter.
    Not great options.

    "I have good credibility on
    the Street," Chaplinsky says. "I think
    my
    assessment is fairly accurate. If some people want to think
    it's derived from
    nonethical methods, let them
    speculate. Now we just have to see if I'm right."

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    • And funny costume...

    • I can predict where the market is headed and have done so in the past.

    • There is a lot of money that is trying to get out
      of Japan and will be looking for a new
      home.

      Most will go into US bonds .. some will go into
      stocks.

      In addition the Fed started adding liquidity to our
      system Friday. This will also tend to move the market
      up.

      In addition this is options experation week.
      Currently the market is to the south side of the point of
      maximum pain. This will also put upward preasure on the
      market.

      The following week should be hell on earth.

      It
      will be better for the entire market if we do go down
      Monday. But it looks like we are heading for the blow off
      top I talked about several days ago.

      The one
      thing that could stop the blow off top would be
      governmental intervention with the dollar/yen
      picture.

      Good night and good luck.

      Gersh

    • I worried because I'm long other stocks but, more
      importantly, I'm thinking that this crash will be a lot bigger
      than 87. If the US market goes, so will the world
      economy. That fear outweighs any thoughts about making a
      few bucks on Intc. I plan on getting rid of about a
      third of my longs.
      Any predictions on how far down
      Monday's open might be? People will probably be thinking
      of Friday's rally and ignore Asia at the beginning,
      only to suffer a steep decline as the day goes on.
      This week just might be remembered for some time to
      come. But let's hope for the best.

    • You can feel confortable as long as
      INTC
      trades in the range (65-70) and you nibble
      at it. But
      I don't think it's good idea
      to feel too
      confortable because once it moves
      it will go up there
      fast. Alot of liquidity in it.
      INTC is everyone's
      favorite when in doubt like
      Asian contagion and stuff.
      Conversely, if it breaks
      below 65, it's because of Q2
      result and I won't worry
      about it. INTC had to
      realign their product lines, get
      rid of excess
      inventories in channel and stuff like
      that.

      Also,
      Celeron is basically a knock-out chip to
      kill low end
      market. AMD and Cyrix don't have high
      ends nor
      capacity to produce volume to really hurt
      INTC.

      Anyway, stay tuned folks....

    • AMD will not! HA HA HA HA

    • Sure Intel will stay up if it goes up. What will
      make it go up in the first place? No earnings warning
      and meeting or beating consensus for 2Q. And if it
      does that, what will make it then go down? Only
      negative guidance about 3Q and 2nd half. But why will they
      give negative guidance if they meet expectations for
      2Q and thus prove wrong all those who expect a lousy
      2Q? Remember that this is the 800 lb gorilla in tech
      field and a whole lot of bad news is already in stock
      and discounted. If I were short I'd be plenty scared,
      not "comfortable."

    • i am shorting INTC and feel very comfortable. Sure INTC may go up but will it stay up.

    • Boy, did I touch their nerve or somethin. On this
      board
      they are good counter indicator. More noise they
      make
      more nervous they are.

      Bulls and bears will
      have their days. But, short pigs will
      be
      slaughtered...

      Good luck shorties.

    • The stupidity you show to underestimate Intel. Do
      you have any industry expertise? What is your
      educational background? As I mentioned earlier, I would be
      suprised if you even graduated high school. Well, did you,
      dumb ass?

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