Much like a Super Bowl champion, everyone is
gunning for whoever is on top. Intel is at the top of the
semiconductor business, so everyone has been gunning for them.
Many people are currently talking about AMD as the
heir apparent to the semiconductor throne. K6-3 and K7
are touted as "silver bullets" to kill the old giant
(nevermind that AMD and Intel have competed for the last 20
years or so).
I see a different scenario. I
liken AMD's release of K6-3 and K7 to the Japanese
attack on Pearl Harbor. It will give AMD six months or a
year to run rampant, but it will also awaken Intel.
When a company as dedicated to quality as Intel is
becomes "motivated," the results are usually spectacular.
The last time this happened was circa 1992-3 with the
release of the Power PC. At 75MHz the IBM and Mac chips
had roughly 25% better performance than the Intel
chips. No 100MHz chips waited in the wings. Andy Grove
therefore declares "war." A ramp is pulled in by a year. In
short order new 90, 100, 120, 133 and eventually 150MHz
chips hit the market and the IBM/Mac threat vaporizes.
This time the threat comes from someone else, AMD. So
what happens? So far, the Celeron 400 release has been
advanced by four months. Other, more spectacular,
advancements of schedule can be expected.
How much you
wanna bet that Intel is trying to pull in the 0.18
micron ramp (or may even already have material running)?
If they are, AMD has six months, maybe a year, to
shine. Intel stock could dip 1H 99, but 2H99 get ready
for lift off. Intel's 0.18 micron process is going to
allow the release of processors which will absolutely
bury anything AMD has announced.
Truely a reflection of lack of confidence in the
execution to a plan, again a reflection of the past. I
agree that there has been a very cautious dealings in
both the "in-money" and "out-money" calls. (I am
covering my postions). Will have to wait and see. The
indications are to look for a couple of quarters for a trend
to establish befor serious money would come in. But
as you had suggested that's how INTC started. Hope
this is an another find.
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"They paid ZDnet to create a new benchmark called
Winstone99 that favors a processor with more on-board L2
Watching too much X-Files there? Again, the only
benchmarks that I've seen that show AMD chips ahead are
*clearly* guilty of the "sin" you're accusing Intel of...
Please, whisper some more.
I guess we INTC
bulls don't want to be greedy, we'll gladly accept the
50% plus annual returns that INTC has and will
provide in the future on our investments. I have nothing
against AMD and wish you luck on your AMD investment. If
you are short INTC, be careful, I'll bet INTC sees
$150 long before AMD sees $150.
Blair, I don't disagree with the winning ways of
INTC in the past, nor do I disagree with the
floundering ways of Mr. Sanders in the past. However I do
want to see the future of chip companies (Afterall
market is a disounting mechanism for future and not
past). I am not going to go through the recent past,
anywhere from executive change announcements at AMD, to
the benchmark performance of chips, to the price
pressure Etc...I am sure you can read them in company
announcements Etc. Seems like there is a place for AMD in the
future market and what it is worth. Given your
observations and recent success I fail to see not holding both
companies and profit from it. As the old saying goes "not
marrying to the company" just own ti until it makes money