I don't argue that intc & msft are overvalued ...
heck, I'm even short intc myself. But $20 for intc & $5
for msft? come on? I'll buy all you'll give me at
those prices. even taking the historical 10 forward p/e
of intc puts it at 30 or so.
isn't it enough
to be right, is it really necessary to be so
Why are you so angry that MSFT and INTC are
trading at the prices they are? Do you have a short
position or just hoping to buy in at the prices you
mentioned. Which I doubt you'll ever se again and if we did
we would in or on our way to a recession or
depression the likes of which haven't been seen since 29.
Hey you want to scream about overvalued try the
internet stocks. You would have a definite case there.
are two of the most overvalued POS to ever exist.
What's their growth rate, 16% and 13%? Come on! Even
MSFT president Steve Ballmer clearly said his company
and other tech companies (i.e INTC) are WAY
overvalued. INTC should correct to $20 and MSFT should
correct to $5 to be fairly valued.
Based on the Q4 Guidance. I put together the
following sensitivity analysis. The only big wild card was
the statement we expect revenue to be up in Q4. I
look at scenario's varying revenue by +15% to +5%.
Given Seasonality I think this is the likely range of
outcome. All other assumptions are constant. ( Gross
Margin up 2%, Research and Development and Marketing
expenses up 10% Interest income $280M.) Given that most of
Q4 is already booked I think Intel can pretty
tightly forecast revenue given fixed q4 pricing; they
just want to hold that as an unknown... Any flaws in
Net revenues $8,300 $8,000
Cost of sales $3,154 $3,040
Research and development $920 $920 $920
general and administrative $1,040 $1,040 $1,040
Operating costs and expenses $5,114 $5,000 $4,886
Operating income $3,186 $3,000 $2,814
other $280 $280 $280
Income before taxes $3,466
Income taxes $1,143 $1,082
Net income $2,322 $2,198 $2,073
per share $0.67 $0.63 $0.60
assuming dilution 3,472 3,472 3,472
figures in $M.
Katmai is getting ready to hit end of life, and
it's been a relatively short life as well. Coppermine
Pentium III's will be available in under two weeks at
speeds of 700+MHz. Look for a relatively quick ramp up
to 800MHz+ speeds. These speed increases will put
600MHz and 550MHz Katmais out to pasture quickly. Add
into the mix that it costs Intel a lot less to make a
Pentium III 667/700/733 (Coppermine core) than it does to
make a Pentium III 500/550/600 (Katmai core). Intel
also plans to release the Pentium III Coppermine core
in even less expensive form factors in the coming
months (*further* reducing the manufacturing cost).
Also, the performance increase for Coppermine is
apparently substantial given the cache design...