.... intel's brokerage/analysts 'friends' would be very happy if they shorted INTC at its ridiculously high pumped price a couple days before intel reported Q4 earns with the iTanium Fiasco one-time-charge included in them !!
Intel isnt interested in 'small losses'. Their only interested in making sure their analyst buddies arent made fools of (like some of them arent already there!). I can guarantee you that "their friends" would not be happy without some advanced warning. A few choice comments about the work proceeding on an x86-64 bit processor(similar to the AMD Hammer), for example, would be a sure signal. And they wouldnt need to break any laws by announcing 'doubts' about IA-64's viability in the marketplace.
And their "friends" will pump like theres no tommorrow to ensure the stock price isnt hurt.
(Similar to the entire last year.)
... I think intel will report a humongous 'one time charge' against earnings in Q4 for the failed iTanium Project Fiasco !!
.... It will hurt Q4 and shove them deep into the LOSS column, but it will also enable intel to bury the iTanium Fiasco back in 2001 for a fresh start in 2002 !!
.... That way Q1 '02 will only result in a SMALL LOSS !
.... Yes, the Bush recession won't end till 2005 after the Democrats get voted in and the Republicans out of gov't in the 2004 elections!
.... The Republicans don't have a clue when it comes to ending a recession except for making the rich richer and fighting a war. Unfortunately for them, the bulk of the War on Terrorism didn't last long enough to make a difference or generate new factory orders, we just shot a few old bullets and dropped a few old bombs on the Taliban/Al Quaeda.
.... When the Democrats take over in 2004 and give us NEW DEAL 2004, then the economy will bottom in 2005. Too late for intel, it will have been in LOSS MODE for 4 years by then and the current Board and Barrett will be long gone!
.... AMD will also be long gone and VIA will have replaced them in the CPU business!
....which is why I believe Intel will stay in the "monopolistic mindset" mode- to admit failure NOW(especially after the profit/marketshare erosion in 2001), would mean the end of the careers of most of the Board. Their tactics throughout the last 2 years, indicates a 'stalling manuever' is the current practice. Everyone (including alot of their own shareholders) recognizes this. They HOPE the economy turns around before the shit hits the fan, but that appears to be a suckers bet.
.... intel doesn't have any "better quarters" coming up any time soon to offset the iTanium failure one time charges!
.... It would appear to be best for them to get it over with in Q4, post the big loss, and lock it all back in 2001 !
.... Otherwise it hangs over their heads thruout 2002 and may have to be applied at a time not of their own choosing if the auditors get onto their case too much!
.... After the Enron failure and finger pointing at Enron's auditors, intel's auditors will ge getting aggressive!
.... Enron and intel both attempted to move from their core businesses and become 'financial powerhouses, instead!
.... Enron moved from energy and intel attempted to move from its core business of CPUs just recently calling CPUs and PCs obsolete.
.... And both Enron and intel failed in the new fields and financial markets. intel paid big bucks for stock or ownership rights in other businesses which failed or are failing and the stocks are now worth only pennies!
.... Both Enron and intel made the fatal assumption/error that success in their own core business automatically meant/translated to success in ANY business!
Not this quarter:
Unless Intel finds themselves in serious 'loss mode' this quarter (something that would be a sure thing with anyone EXCEPT Intel- where do they always find more write-offs, anyway?), I would think they will save the IA-64 write-offs for a better quarter. One in which it will boost an already increasing bottom line, or one in which they havent enough write-offs to give a positive result without it.
Or alternatively, they could (in all likelyhood) continue their monopolistic mindset and actually believe that the business world will be happy to spend billions switching to their 64 bit platform.
Which only delays the eventuality that they WILL write it off.
.... Yes, $10-15 is a high range for INTC, but it will pass thru there on its way to $2/share as it continues its plummet into LOSS MODE !!
.... Ever notice how all NASDAQ stocks go to -0- evenyually?