I see 1c eps increase (46c Basic EPS) under the assumption there is no more loan loss reserve release or additions. To get higher than that there needs to be a material pick up in originations per branch or they release another chunk of reserve releases - both possible but unlikely in this competitive environment I think.
46c Basic EPS if you unwind the swap write-off so more or less inline with what I was expecting from a EPS perspective.
+ves: Volume per branch was higher than I expected at 622,000 vs 610,000 I expected.
- Dealer discount is down to 7.41%. This is indicative of the hugely competitive environment. I'm not sure if DD has been this low before - I'd need to check but I think 8.04% was the prior low in Q2-2007 (back to 2002).
To get the branch volume NICK had to throw the Dealer Discount under the bus.
-Charge-offs materially picked up to 6.39% up from 4.07% last Q. That's about 1.7MM higher $$ charge-off than I expected and I'm guessing is due to a combination of manheim index rolling over impacting recovery values + higher volume of repossessions due to the ongoing deterioration in the loan book.
- 30+ PD now at 21MM up from 16.8MM last Q.
g/l NICKers -- Continued tough sledding ahead imo.