Sun, Jan 25, 2015, 9:44 AM EST - U.S. Markets closed


% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Nicholas Financial Inc. Message Board

you are viewing a single comment's thread.

view the rest of the posts
  • spin.vestor spin.vestor Oct 27, 2012 5:07 PM Flag

    2Q earnings

    I see 1c eps increase (46c Basic EPS) under the assumption there is no more loan loss reserve release or additions. To get higher than that there needs to be a material pick up in originations per branch or they release another chunk of reserve releases - both possible but unlikely in this competitive environment I think.

    Key assumptions:
    Purchase Volume Assumption: $610,000 / branch * 63 branches = ~38.5MM (37.2MM Last Q and 35.1MM Y-o-Y).
    Charge-off: 4%
    Dealer discount: 8.1%
    Provision Build/(release): $0

    g/l NICKers


    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • 46c Basic EPS if you unwind the swap write-off so more or less inline with what I was expecting from a EPS perspective.

      +ves: Volume per branch was higher than I expected at 622,000 vs 610,000 I expected.

      - Dealer discount is down to 7.41%. This is indicative of the hugely competitive environment. I'm not sure if DD has been this low before - I'd need to check but I think 8.04% was the prior low in Q2-2007 (back to 2002).
      To get the branch volume NICK had to throw the Dealer Discount under the bus.

      -Charge-offs materially picked up to 6.39% up from 4.07% last Q. That's about 1.7MM higher $$ charge-off than I expected and I'm guessing is due to a combination of manheim index rolling over impacting recovery values + higher volume of repossessions due to the ongoing deterioration in the loan book.

      - 30+ PD now at 21MM up from 16.8MM last Q.

      g/l NICKers -- Continued tough sledding ahead imo.


    • Unfortunately, we were BOTH WRONG.

      Earnings were DOWN by $.04/share.

      It was explained that expenses were higher, and there was a non-cash expense for a writedown on an interest rate swap.

      Hopefully, we can get earnings growing again next quarter.

      Any thoughts?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

14.33-0.19(-1.31%)Jan 23 3:59 PMEST

Trending Tickers

Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.