It looks like the Toyota deal is not that good. Analysts had it in their numbers and JP Morgan is even cutting 2012 EPS today (below consensus!)
Deutsche Bank says:
"Revenue of $100MM over a 2-year period appears relatively low compared to the $69MM development contract; however, given our estimate for revenueper- unit in the $15k range, Toyota appears to be taking a cautious view on volumes and we'd expect that the program volumes could be expanded given sufficient demand. Our model currently incorporates RAV4 supply revenue of $145MM for 2H12 - 2014, but we'd note that this only represents 3% of total company revenue expectations for this time period, so the moderate downside is not material to our valuation."
JP Morgan Says:
"TSLA announced a “Supply and Services” agreement with Toyota to supply Powertrain components for Toyota RAV4 EV, which should generate $100MM of cumulative revenues for TSLA beginning mid-2012. The RAV4 Powertrain component (battery pack, motor, gear box, etc.) supply agreement essentially seems to be a follow-up contract of the prior Development Service contract for the vehicle that TSLA secured in October 2010. Incremental revenues from this supply agreement (over and above the $69MM of previously expected Development service revenues by 1Q:2012) appear largely in line with what we had already penciled into our model."
JP Morgan is also cutting TSLA 2012 EPS from -1,51 USD to -1,77 USD (consensus at -1,45 USD)
All of this stuff was in the models when they talked about the deal last year (upgrades in the fall after $60M deal announced). Most of the models are have all upside scenarios priced in so the only significant catalysts would be new new stuff like a new manufacturer. Even that however, would have to be a massive deal to move the dial relative to what the analysts have modeled for Model S sales (in the billions).
The way that the Morgan guy did his goofy analysis (15 year DCF with 90% of value beyond 2020) I imagine nothing can move that dial.
All the analysts models assume on time delivery and 100% production capacity sold out always.All of the analysts models assume no significant marketing spend. Those are big assumptions! It's hard to sell cars.