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Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Message Board

  • temagami67 temagami67 Jan 31, 2013 7:57 PM Flag

    400 per Week Verified

    The TMC forum has an excellent Google spreadsheet that summarizes Tesla delivery and schedule information. I keep thinking that there should be a way to condense the data into a VIN delivery timeline, but the scatter in the delivery dates makes it challenging. Now I’ve figured out a way to do it. I took the data and sorted by VIN number. Then I grouped the VIN’s into blocks of 100. Then I calculated the average delivery date for each block. For some data, there was only a delivery range and not a specific date. In that case, I used the middle of the range as the delivery date. As an example, the 2200 block had 17 data points with an average delivery date of 12/25. So we can expect that all 100 in the block had an average delivery date of 12/25. Then we can look at how many blocks had an average delivery date in December and how many in January. And we can estimate deliveries by month.

    Results: December deliveries include blocks 1200 thru 2900, or 18 blocks of 100. After subtracting the Post-Signature gaps at 1200-1249 and 2120-2199, that makes about 1670 deliveries in December. Very close to 400/wk. January deliveries come in somewhat lower because of a week off and changeover to accommodate 60 kWh battery packs. Blocks 3000 thru 3800 had average deliveries in January. So 900 January deliveries. As most of this is loaded late in the month, it looks very much like they are back up to their 400/wk rate. Looking ahead, blocks 3900 and 4000 are both showing a delivery average date of Feb 5.

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