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Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Message Board

  • rpeeble1@gmail.com rpeeble1 Feb 18, 2013 11:08 PM Flag

    Order Backlog as of Sept 2012,,,,,from the 10Q

    Other aspects of our distribution model also differ from those used by traditional automobile manufacturers. For example, all of our sales of Model S to date have been made to individuals on our Model S reservations list who have to wait for their Model S vehicles to be built to take delivery. As of September 30, 2012, there were approximately 13,200 reservation holders. We expect that it will take more than six months to completely work through this backlog. Moreover, we do not anticipate that we will ever carry a significant amount of Model S inventory at our stores and even after we work through the current reservations list, we expect that there will be sufficient ongoing reservations such that customers will usually need to wait a few months from the time they place an order until the time they receive their vehicle. This type of custom manufacturing is unusual in the premium sedan market in the United States and it is unproven whether the average customer will be willing to wait this amount of time for such a vehicle. If customers do not embrace this ordering and retail experience, our business will be harmed.

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    • My doctors friend called me to talk about my experience with the
      car, saying he was ready to order one. I told him who to call. He called back a day or two later saying he ordered one and was told me he would get delivery in two months.Who should I believe?????

      • 3 Replies to ripwinkles
      • Rip
        It looks like your DR was right. on the summary page there is an article about deliveries wait.
        Its on The Street by Anton Wahlman (Big Tesla fan)
        "Tesla Triumphs but Questions Remain
        Let's start with the two main unanswered questions regarding Tesla's near-term future: Demand and profitability. These are two questions Tesla has got to answer on its quarterly earnings call this week.
        Demand: I walked into a Tesla store this weekend and asked several times how long the wait is for a car, for someone ordering a Tesla right now. I was told 30 days, which is shockingly quick, compared to what we were told only one to two months ago.

        There are only three things you have to stick to if you want delivery in 30 days:
        There are 3 things that will delay your order.
        A. the battery must be the 60 or 85 kWh version -- not the 40 kWh;
        B. you must order the $1,500 air suspension option;
        C. you can't have the new red color.

        With 14,000 U.S. net reservations for the Model S remaining, how can the wait for the car be only 30 days? They're only building 1,600 cars per month. The wait should be almost 11 months (14,000 divided by 1,600).
        Clearly some of the cars are red, 40 kWh battery and don't have the air suspension -- but 90% of the order stock? Seriously? That seems like a lot. Seems very unlikely. "

        A Tesla bear would say that thousands of people must have asked for their deposits back. Basically, the backlog has been significantly reduced. If true, this would be a horrendous bearish sign, and it could cause the stock to collapse upon the earnings report.

        Another explanation would be that those who have deposits have chosen to "defer" their deliveries until some time in the future, even though they could have taken delivery right now in February. This may be true to some extent, but it would be surprising if it explained the whole gap.

        Some would argue that those who are placing orders today are "cutting in line" against the will of those with earlier deposits. I find this unlikely. Word of this would spread like a prairie fire. People would feel cheated and become upset. I can't imagine Tesla doing this other than in carefully selected special cases for good reason.
        The optimist has a different interpretation: Tesla has increased production from the recent consensus of 400 cars per week. Most people reported that the 400 per week goal was reached some time in December or January. Well, what if it simply continued to rise?

        For a production increase to explain the whole multi-thousand gap in such a short time-frame though, production must have gone up almost 10-fold, not just a somewhat half-realistic doubling from 400 cars per week to 800 or whatever in the last month or so.

        Bottom line on this point: There is at least some chance that this development is not a good sign for Tesla's order book. I really don't know, and the numbers appear somewhat contradictory and inconclusive. There are multiple possibilities. "

        He seems to be floundering, as I did, in an attempt to find a positive answer. That doesn't mean there isn't one but he is a serious fan of Tesla and he has no better answer answer than I.

      • Rip
        Rpeeble is reading from the 10Q which is accurate as of Sept 30. About 3months and 3weeks ago.
        " told me he would get delivery in two months"
        If your Dr is correct Tesla has 2 months of backlog of demand. Excluding 40kWh models which they won't be making for a month or so. (Demand is expected to be small for them but that may be incorrect.)
        First has been reporting 20K + waiting list, He calls sales, If 2 months is correct; The waiting list is about 3,000-4,000 as they state they are making 5,000 a Q or 20,000 a year rate?
        The only explanation I can conjure up is there are massive numbers being delayed (16,000 + delayed) due to parts not being available?
        This doesn't seem any more likely than Michigan models being off by a factor of 4.
        Nor would it seem likely your Dr lied.
        None of them seem likely. My best guess is a miscommunication.
        Has he already confirmed his options? That sort of thing?
        Without further information I can't say.
        Here's my WAG:
        I'm thinking they talked to him and said we will 'contact' you in a couple of months. and he thought that meant delivery.
        Considering 20,000 in reservations = a years production I can't say that holds a lot of water either.
        Frankly I'm thinking Michigan models is the most likely to be wrong but I'm short the stock (again) so take that with a grain of salt.
        Keep us posted.

      • If he finalized his order then he should receive his car rather quickly with the TESLA ramp up, he he finalized the 85Kwh model, he should recieve his order even quicker being that its the most profitable vehicle for TESLA. THey are barely going into production for the 60 KwH car and none has been produced for the 40 kwh car as of yet. Tesla is no longer producing vehicles based upon reservation number, but rather, who finalized their order the fastest on the 85 and 60kwh time table.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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