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Tesla Motors, Inc. Message Board

  • ballcoach_30 ballcoach_30 Mar 9, 2013 10:38 AM Flag


    A number of posters have been saying Tesla is now into more than 15,000 as deposit-to-production confirmations. Did any of you stop to think for a moment as to what this means? Simply put, Tesla can't possibly have produced 10,000 vehicles so far. It also strongly suggests the deposit list isn't as large as some zombies have proclaimed. Realistically, can ANYONE make any sense out of the production numbers when compared to the deposit sequence? No! The only plausible explanation is a huge gap in sequence due to a major decline in deposit confirmations.

    Just look to Europe, folks. It's the next bastion of promises/hype. Be assured the results won't change when the financials are revealed. This runs in line with the proclamation of Tesla paying off the DOE loan in advance. It's all a joke, folks. Yet, not many of you are smart enough to see this blabber for what it is.

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    • I am curious if you have ever been to the factory and taken a tour of Tesla's Freemont plant. It is an interesting site and very different than any conventional plant I have toured for GM, F, or Japanese transplants.
      BTW, Tesla tells you how many cars they produced in the quarter. They tell you every quarter what the backlog is at the end of the quarter. They offer a reasonable description of the production mix in the quarter. They told us that they were delivering out of vin sequence as option packages were being finished.

      I think the real problem is that Tesla continues to progress with its business plan in an unconventional manner that you cannot understand. I would suspect you have not spent much time analyzing private equity companies, much less those who are innovating outside of conventional industry practices.

      Tesla is a mix of automotive, technology, and consumer preference. Their market is not limited to North America or even "Old" Europe. In the Pacific Rim countries, hundreds of millionaires are being created annually and the old adage of you are what you drive is alive and well in those markets.

      Let's see if Tesla produces and sells 20,000 Model S units in 2013. Let's see what the backlog does over the next few quarters. My guess is that as 2013 rolls along you will contrive more "issues" but you will only have babble to add to the discourse.

      Tesla has an exciting product and a committed workforce to deliver the new product. That is an interesting combination in the marketplace of ideas that will thrive or fail over the next 8 quarters.
      Open you mind and see what can be. Do not only project your limited, past experiences on this opportunity.
      If you do, you could miss a great ride.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to cgodman
      • Cgodman, I'm not sure if you were addressing me. Were you? If so, I can tell you I've been to the following places, most multiple times: Honda in Ohio, BMW in Spartansburg, Mercedes in Alabama, Chrysler in Detroit/StLouis, BMW in Munich, and Mercedes in Sindlefingen/Unterturkheim. I have spoken personally to the plant managers of at least FOUR of those plants. I've seen vehicles built almost entirely by robotics. If you're telling me the Fremont plant is very different, I'm politely telling you you're badly informed, because it isn't! Virtually everything Tesla has in the plant is pre-owned or re-furbished. There's nothing revolutionary in that.

        I haven't spent much time analyzing private equity companies? What does this have to do with Tesla, which is a public company? I've spent more than 25 years in the auto business on both the manufacturer and dealer side. If you honestly think an individual or group of individuals who've invested millions of dollars of their own money into building/buying an auto dealerships AREN'T private equity concerns, I will again politely say you are badly informed.

        Lastly, I can promise you I've prepared more forecasts and analyzed more financial statements than you have ever seen. It's not a boast. Just a matter of fact. So if you wish to provide additional sermons to me, please take the time to acquire your Divinity Degree. Oh, and check with Rome. I hear they're looking for a Pope.

    • Other than Tesla, how many car companies have their "deposit backlog" scrutinized for conversions to actual orders? None, most likely, since most car companies, like most shoe companies, do not build to order. There is so much demand for the model S that customers in the thousands are willing to put down a deposit just to get in line. You have to wonder what sort of sales increase Tesla could expect if they could get ahead of the curve and start having product available for immediate delivery. Sky's the limit. Especially when the model X and the low cost model hits the market over the next couple of years. IMO

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to astrophil52
      • Astrophil, the scrutiny comes as a result of Tesla being totally secretive in a business where transparency is commonplace. Simple exercises like divulging sales figures, etc are refused by Tesla people like they're petulant, little children. These folks crow about how great business is but yet refuse to engage in what is a business norm of revealing figures. Really, it boggles the mind how amateurish the people at Tesla can be on a consistent basis. They leave everything up to imagination and the zombies on this board lap it up!

        Now if just one of the zombies could actually carry on a conversation.................

    • That's not the 'only' explanation. It's just the only explanation you can think of.

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