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Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Message Board

  • temagami67 temagami67 Mar 19, 2013 1:21 PM Flag

    It’s Time to Build - Revenues

    It’s time to build the spreadsheet numbers for the first quarter. Let’s start with revenue assumptions. My spreadsheet shows revenue from 5 sources: Model S sales, Roadster sales, Toyota sales, ZEV+GHG credits, and Development Services. In the earnings statement, the first four get grouped into Automotive Sales. Revenues from Model S and Roadster are straightforward to calculate. Toyota is a little harder. Does anyone know how much Telsa is receiving per powertrain? And I believe there is one more milestone payment to be made in the first quarter. Last year, sales to Toyota were about $30M. Should I just use $7.5M/qtr? ZEV+GHG credits were a whopping $15k/car in 2012. I’m assuming that with more credits to sell, it won’t be quite as much this quarter. For Development Services, I have no idea so I’ll just throw in $5M. The revenue spreadsheet looks like this so far:

    Model S 4800 units, $98k ARP = $461M.
    Roadster 12 units, $140k ARP = $1.7M.
    Toyota 250 units, $30k ARP = $7.5M.
    ZEV+GHG 4800 units, $12k = $56.4M.
    Devt Serv = $5M
    Total Revenue = $531M.

    This is a discussion board, so all comments are welcome.

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    • temagami67,

      Great call on the Rev. prediction. Your 4800 Model S number was right on. (I had to go digging for this topic as it had gotten so far back given all the recent new Post. But I was determined to find it today...:)....)

      Where did you get the $12k for Regulatory Credits? I'm not entirely clear how much demand there is, but I like this area of TSLA Rev. as in some ways it's free money. Or atleast in my mind it's just pure cash injection.

      Also last qtr. they had $12M from Mercedes/Toyota. Is that number up or down this quarter..? You are showing that as the Toyota 250 unts = $7.5M is that low now with the units they have sold this quarter to Mercedes or are those later in the yr sales?

      Either way I'm with you on busting through the $500M number for total Rev.

      • 1 Reply to easygoingnala
      • Easygoing, thank you for the kind words. The $12k for reg credits is purely my guess. Last quarter, they were $15k per car, so I would use this as an upper bound. For a lower bound, they indicated in the 10-K that they had a buyer lined up for the first quarter. Coupled with Elon's statement that they would be profitable in Q1, I would put the lower bound at $10k. But it's only a guess.

        Regarding powertrain deliveries, The Toyota units will be below 150 and I don't believe there were any Mercedes deliveries. However, with the new supply announcement, there could be significant revenue from development services. I think that the sum of these will still be around $12M. But with Model S sales now at 5000/qtr, these other sources of revenue become insignificant.

    • temagami, your overall Q1 revenue looks OK to me. The complete unknown is Regulatory Credits. You can't tell where this will come from nor how much. Put that aside for a moment, and the rest of your assessment is right on.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • 1 Reply to wtfrevs4
      • Thanks to all for your feedback on Revenues. I know Elon said to expect 4500 deliveries, and a week or 2 ago that's what it looked like to me. But I'm seeing some very odd VIN gaps and it sure looks like there is a delivery blitz forming. So let's go with 4800. For model S ARP, most seem to think I'm too high, so let's adjust that to 92k. Here are the new numbers.

        Model S 4800 units, $92k ARP = $441.6M.
        Roadster 12 units, $140k ARP = $1.7M.
        Toyota 250 units, $30k ARP = $7.5M.
        ZEV+GHG 4800 units, $12k = $57.6M. (who can even guess?)
        Devt Serv = $5M
        Total Revenue = $513.4M.

    • Oops - I still had 4700 units in my spreadsheet. I was going to up it to 4800 so I would not be accused of skewing my numbers. Well, let's leave it at 4700 for now because the revenues still exceed the analysts prediction by an enormous 14%! In other words, if you thought the "revenue beat" was big last quarter, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

    • I'm not "into" the quarters so much, but it seems to me the 2014 consensus revenue and earnings forecast is suspect. How do you grow revenues from $1.9 B to $2.53 B when the Model X is pushed out to Q4 2014 (and we know what happened to the Model S its first Q of production), the Model S is producing "dumbed-down" kwh models, and equilibrium production/consumption of the Model S is hit during Q1 2014 so 2014 Model S production is closer to 10,000 units than 20k?

 
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