This is part 2 of 3. I think the Operation Expenses should be pretty straightforward. For R&D, I propose to use Elon's number of 15% less than last quarter. For SG&A, I feel it has to be up about 10% since they are opening new stores, new service centers, and delivering twice as many cars.
Total Operating Expenses = $109
I'm not expecting much debate on Op Ex. But I think I'll take a break before throwing out some numbers for part 3, Gross Margin estimates. Once we have that, the spreadsheet will be complete.
I'm not temagami, and he probably won't like me answering in his stead. But he will do what everyone has done here in estimating earnings: apply an appropriate GM to each product/service area based on history and all that we know.
I'll preempt t.g, and give my version: 0-5% for Model S,15-20% for the Roadster and Powertrain products, 100% for Regulatory Credits, and 30% for development services. Some arithmetic and you get $0-22M for Model S, $0.2-0.35M for Roadster, $1-1.5M for Powertrain, $57.6M for Regulatory Credits, and $1.5M for Development Services. Total then is ~$60M to $83M. If you buy that the Musk goal is about -$20-25M at GAAP, then the best case number is close, but not quite. Tesla has never, ever hit the best case. Thsy'll miss by $20M.