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Tesla Motors, Inc. Message Board

  • temagami67 temagami67 Mar 19, 2013 10:45 PM Flag

    It’s Time to Build - Expenses

    This is part 2 of 3. I think the Operation Expenses should be pretty straightforward. For R&D, I propose to use Elon's number of 15% less than last quarter. For SG&A, I feel it has to be up about 10% since they are opening new stores, new service centers, and delivering twice as many cars.

    R&D $58.5M
    SG&A $50.5M
    Total Operating Expenses = $109

    I'm not expecting much debate on Op Ex. But I think I'll take a break before throwing out some numbers for part 3, Gross Margin estimates. Once we have that, the spreadsheet will be complete.

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    • you added things like ZEV credits to revenue, are you now going to take 10% net on total revenue to figure out earnings? Makes no sense because ZEV credits would be 100% net.

      • 2 Replies to futurecartsla
      • No, I am assuming a GM of 100% on ZEV credits. Oh, what the heck, here are the rest of my GM's:
        Roadster and Toyota both 20%.
        Development Services 50%.
        Model S 5% (15% higher than last quarter).

        I can expound on it tomorrow.

      • I'm not temagami, and he probably won't like me answering in his stead. But he will do what everyone has done here in estimating earnings: apply an appropriate GM to each product/service area based on history and all that we know.

        I'll preempt t.g, and give my version: 0-5% for Model S,15-20% for the Roadster and Powertrain products, 100% for Regulatory Credits, and 30% for development services. Some arithmetic and you get $0-22M for Model S, $0.2-0.35M for Roadster, $1-1.5M for Powertrain, $57.6M for Regulatory Credits, and $1.5M for Development Services. Total then is ~$60M to $83M. If you buy that the Musk goal is about -$20-25M at GAAP, then the best case number is close, but not quite. Tesla has never, ever hit the best case. Thsy'll miss by $20M.

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

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