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Tesla Motors, Inc. Message Board

  • temagami67 temagami67 Mar 21, 2013 10:26 AM Flag

    It's Time to Build - Earnings

    From the previous discussions, we have the basis for estimating first quarter earnings. There are a few wild cards that can tip the balance, but here's what we've got. Using numbers that I posted, and feel are the rosiest possible, There is an earnings loss of $25M (GAAP). WT suggested that the non-GAAP adjustment could increase from $17M to $22M. That would just about hit the break-even point, certainly within the accuracy of the estimation. The rosy numbers also achieve an overall GM of 16.4%, which is in line with Elon's guidance.

    WT suggested more realistic GM's. (basically, 5% less on everything except ZEV credits stay at 100%). These numbers work out to a loss of $48M GAAP, or $26M non-GAAP.

    Thanks to all for your input, especially WT. I would like to say that all will be revealed in the quarterly report, but I expect that ZEV credits will be hidden and lumped into Model S revenue. I wonder if anyone in the CC will think to inquire on the subject.

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    • Re: " I wonder if anyone in the CC will think to inquire on the subject."

      ASKED AND UNANSWERED (with no follow-up) Why do they bother? While doing damage control about the admission of a material weakness in financial controls, Deepak was asked a direct question about the purchaser of the credits; he declined to answer. This pair makes Skilling and Fastow seem like pikers.

      "Ben Schuman - Pacific Crest Securities
      Hi guys. Thanks. Can you give us any idea of what the regulatory credit revenue was in Q4?

      Elon Musk - Chairman, CEO, and Product Architect
      Deepak, do you want to comment on that or is that...?

      Deepak Ahuja - Chief Financial Officer
      I think for us, the way we looked at regulatory credit is that it’s great to get that, it’s a positive stream of revenue, but it’s unpredictable, and as we look forward, we are much more focused on getting to profitability and achieving our target without the benefit of the regulatory credits.

      Elon Musk - Chairman, CEO, and Product Architect
      Yes. Exactly. Exactly. And in fact, maybe just to clarify further, as people may recall, there were three firm things that I promised we would do, that we would start production last year earlier than July and we started in June, and we would get to 20,000 units a year and that by the -- sorry, that we would deliver 20,000 units in 2013, and that by the end of 2013 we would exceed 25% gross margin. And I want to be clear that that 25% does not include regulatory credits.

      Ben Schuman - Pacific Crest Securities
      Okay. Great. And then can you maybe give us an update on the quality control situation just in terms of what percentage of the cars are still getting some sort of post-production touch-up work?"

    • goodluck shortie's.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • I forgot to mention the overall GM you get with the realistic estimates. Overall GM is still an impressive 11.9%, but it's almost entirely made up of ZEV+GHG credits. And right now we only have the wildest of guesses for that. So first quarter earnings could surprise everyone.

      • 1 Reply to temagami67
      • Expectations are certainly low. Short interest was 32M out of float that is may be 50% of the outstanding shares of 114M. This is big money that must have conviction. I have never seen this before. The shorts are willing to pay 20% to borrowed shares. I got other stuff in my portfolio like railroads, beverage companies, etc... the best I can get is 0.5% for the shares @ yearly rate. Meh!

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