It's been very hard to figure out where the build rate is at, especially for these past few weeks. Delivery reports in the forums is down to the smallest of trickles. We're only getting about one report for every 100 vehicles. In the most extreme case, there are zero VIN reports between 7407 and 7845. I think that most of the long term reservation holders have received their cars, and new reservationists tend not to post.
But finally, there seems to be something to grab onto. On 3/6, it was reported that VIN's in the 67xx range were on the assembly line. Now on 3/22, 82xx was reported on the line. Assuming there are no gaps in the VIN sequence, that's about 650 per week! Although I'm still skeptical about profits, I think the Q1 revenue numbers will astound.
((Assuming there are no gaps in the VIN sequence, that's about 650 per week! )) Well guess what - we've got gaps. The first two multi-red VIN's have been reported and the VIN's are in the 77xx range, right in the middle of my build rate calculation. The multi-reds start production in about a week, with first deliveries near the end of April. So the build rate is less than 650 per week. And since I have no idea how big the gaps are, I'll go with Elon's estimate of 500.
Tem, did you see the news story about Tesla's subcontractor that makes the frunk inserts. They are called Jamestown Plastics. They have been shipping 500 inserts per week and are ramping up to 650 per week. Just another data point, for what it's worth.
Tesla 3-21-2013 Blog:
"During the past three weeks we have averaged more than 500 Model S deliveries per week, and it looks like we’ll be setting another record this week. "
Of course, these are deliveries and not production numbers. However, since the 500 car/wk averaged over 3 weeks, production numbers go to be close. Their primary goal was efficiency, tune the manufacturing process, supply chain, eliminate temp labor, etc. Then scale production. Otherwise it would not make sense to go anywhere close to 500 cars/week.
I suspect they have achieved their efficiency goals. Production got to be smooth for them to produce 500 cars/wk. It may mean positive cash flow since their R&D has tapered off. I suspect their SG&A must have picked up, but they also must have signed service contracts to mitigate some of the expenses. I want to see them rapidly deploy 200 SC in the US. Also, tie-ins with hotels for 100A/240V nationwide. Free for Tesla owners and charge everybody else. The charger locations could have all kinds of LED signs with messages promoting Tesla products.
Putting SCs on the highway is ok. Putting them at hotels is even better. Why not offer the ability to charge at a hotel only 1/4 mile off the highway rather than at a rest-stop? Also, make it a reasonably nice hotel with a restaurant so if you want a 1-hour dinner and charge, you are spending in the establishment. Airports would only need 120V plugs to support all types of EVs. You're there for days, perhaps, you only need to slow-charge.
Who'dathunk a business plan may just come together as, uh, planned. Usually, companies hype and hype again and fail to deliver as promised. Looks like they may be building faster through efficiency now. Good stuff. Nice to see an American-made luxury car brand being born. Now go fix that vampire drain, will-ya?
i agree with your assessment, current buyers dont have months on a waiting list hoping to post. deliveries more routine now. i work at virginia hospital and 4 docs have the car already. none of us knew the others had ordered. i believe the announcement maybe even 10,000 car made which would explain why it had to be put off to next week. notice i said made and not delivered. there is a lag of 2 weeks in that step but at current rate that could represent 1200 car difference.