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Tesla Motors, Inc. Message Board

  • tonyhenry260860 tonyhenry260860 Apr 12, 2013 10:52 AM Flag

    Trees don't grow to heaven

    Couldn't break through resistance.
    HUGE gains in recent weeks.
    Rule of Gaps and reversion to the normal says the gap will close.
    Hope you took some profits at the top.
    This baby is due a correction.
    "Bulls make money; bears make money - PIGS get slaughtered."
    Don't be greedy.
    Sell and buy back cheaper (if you're a believer).

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    • I look at investing in stocks as if I was buying into a business:
      1. Product - Got to like the product. Look at the car. Test drive the car a few times. Play with the controls. Talk to customers.
      2. Visit the factory - I have not done that, but I look at multiple videos several times. Do I like their manufacturing and business plan? Short comings? Would I do better? In Tesla's case, I like their layout, the level and flexibility of automation. I have not see the level of automation in their motor assembly or the assembly of the battery system. I imagine they could automate further, but for their volume, they got it an optimum. The process is certainly scalable and they can double production with 2 shifts.
      3. Tech advance in the future - Battery tech will undergo a revolution within 3-5 years due to graphene in batteries. Envia Systems seems to have the best promise. This will be they enabling technology for BEV to enter the mass market. Tesla certainly has the first mover advantage in practical range BEV. Not talking about the LEAF golf cart.
      4. Financials - It was touch and go, but I expect them to be cash flow positive. I think the economies of scale will increase gross margins along the parabolic curve. Most of the gains will be obtained as production goes from 25,000 cars to 50,000 MS/year with doubling of the shifts.
      5. Sustained Demand - It can be argued that current demand is just from early adopters. However, I think the hi end buyer will step in once the Super Chargers are installed. They need to reach the critical density of SCs before S-Curve growth will be achieved. The next CC will give us an idea. Prices of MS will have to come down or more features added at the same price points like increased battery capacity (100-125 KWhr for the top of the line) and range, smart cruise control, collision avoidance, etc. People love hi tech features.

    • good post
      I did get out
      there was absolutely no reason for it to go up today
      u seem to know something
      where do u see the next entry point?
      I am an owner and a believer

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