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Tesla Motors, Inc. Message Board

  • kbodie77777 kbodie77777 Apr 20, 2013 11:50 AM Flag

    May 6th earnings === care to speculate

    I'll go first
    1.) Operations did not produce cash.
    2.) The profit is based on a one-time accounting change.
    3.) Accounts payable will still exceed $250 million.
    4.) Working cap is now negative.

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    • It will be better than what the impression the pre-annoucement made. All companies know how NOT to make expectation before the earning report too high.

      • 1 Reply to carlk_120
      • My predictions are:
        1.) Operations did not produce cash.
        2.) The profit is based on a one-time accounting change.
        3.) Accounts payable will still exceed $250 million.
        4.) Working cap is now negative.

        I am rethinking cash flow from ops because Tesla supposedly sold $40 million worth of ZEV credits and I'm not sure how they will account for those.

    • I agree with the posters that sales of 4,750 with ASP of $85-90K will result in sales of $400-425M. Got to include service and maintenance contracts too. However, after doing calculations of the drop in the cost of labor, more than doubling of volume, minimal cost of rework, optimized supply chain, etc, I expect their gross margins from operations to be closer to 25% in the second have of the quarter. Before R&D which has gone down and marketing that has gone up. A wild card in the gross margins estimates is what TSLA spent on engineering to get their factory robots and presses optimized. Did they spend a ton of money on inventory control systems like implementing SAP? Anyway, those are investments in the true sense.

      Unless TSLA cuts prices, volume above 400 cars/week increases margins dramatically since fixed costs are already covered. Preferably with a single shift and no over time. That is why I expect cash flow, GAAP profits to be positive - significantly! The analysts are missing on the economies of scale of an automated operation like Tesla.

      • 3 Replies to ajitmd2000
      • Tesla sells 5300 cars. Total revenue(including ZEV credits, service contracts)530,000,000. Based on my own model S VIN #—not disclosing here—delivered on April 7th, but closed on the 30th of March. The rest you guys figure it out. All I can tell you is that in my own little town of about 3500 families in the suburbs of NYC everyone now wants this car—and they can afford it too. Hope this helps. I have driven about 1250 miles, and the drive is a pure pleasure. It’s magic. It won’t be wrong to say that it’s perhaps the most important car US has produced in the last 50 years. Good luck longs!

        Sentiment: Hold

      • kbodie77777 Apr 23, 2013 12:27 PM Flag

        Good post armpit, did you like the photos I sent that I took at the playground?

      • Excellent post ajit,

        Ajitmd2000: (( sales of $400-425M )))

        I'll round that up to $500 million in top line revenues.

        AjitMD2000 : (( gross margins from operations to be closer to 25% ))

        I'll go all the way to 30% (just to be ridiculous).

        That gives us a $150,000,000 operating profit. Take away $100,000,000 for fixed costs and we have a $50 million bottom line. The market cap is $6 billion. Plus another $1 billion in debt and unpaid bills.

        Summary: Many people are claiming Tesla is a "story stock" meaning the stock price is based on expectations which are not founded in hard numbers but the wild promises of the EV revolution.

        I just call it a scam.

        PS: A gross margin based on one time accounting items and sales of ZEV credits should be discounted IMO.

    • Thanks for your predicitons Kbodie! I've been saying revenues will be $400 mil. What do you think on revenues? And you are saying negative gross margin? That's a bold prediction, I think you'll be wrong on that. Profitable based on an accounting change? maybe so, I think they will be near neutral on profits for the quarter. I have no idea on any accounting changes but maybe you are clairvoyant. Working capital negative? I disagree on that one. Working capital should be healthier with their sales level in 1st Q '13. Thanks for stepping up and making some predictions. We'll check results in a few weeks.

      • 3 Replies to budwashougal
      • Bud, just getting back to you on a question that you asked a few days ago on revenues. Right now I'm estimating revenues of $546M for the quarter. This includes ZEV credits of $57M. These revenues should generate a gross profit of $97M. From this, subtract $108M operating expenses and add in the $11M one-time adjustment. It should be just enough to bring the GAAP earnings into the black.

      • ballcoach_30 Apr 23, 2013 12:44 PM Flag

        Bud you know that I am smarter than anyone here so why don't you admit that you're as damaged as kdoobie and maybe we can go to the bath house together. You know I am switch hitter,,,,your turn at bat Bud.

      • Bud, I know you've been running from me these past few days because you honestly don't know how to answer my questions. That's okay! I'll accept it. In the meantime, I'll focus on something you just posted. You said Working Capital will be "healthier with their sales level in 1st Q '13". My question to you, Bud, is how does this happen? I'm not going to give you any clues or advice on this one. I'm asking you point-blank to explain what you're saying. How does profits, or for that matter, sales, make working capital better? Specifically, how does this happen with Tesla?

        You' re at bat, Bud. Whatcha got?

    • There won't be a miss on cars, in fact car sales will beat expectations. There will be a miss on profitability. It will be spun in a way that isn't negative- and frankly it probably isn't negative. The real costs will be R&D from the next generation. The model x will be shelved, and instead the next gen will be moved forward. The result is that Tesla shares will not fall significantly, and by virtue of that, numerous shorts will face a moment of truth: if the stock won't fall by more than 10% in the face of these earnings, should they continue to pay 40%-80% annually. More shorts will close their position, and within 3 weeks we'll see 55. That's the outcome- regardless of whether the news is good or bad. Tesla would really have to underproduce cars- and they already reported that they are overproducing.

    • So where are the longs on this? Don't they calculate or estimate or guess or care what the profits or losses might be? Do they know that the share price at some point has to reflect the value of all the future profits. And they don't have any info or thoughts about it. It's a very informative silence.

    • " The profit is based on a one-time accounting change."
      and Zev credits.

      And I agree with Murse bashers will bash based on the numbers and the Longs won't care .
      Elon will announce a raise has happened at a good price.
      The stock will go up.
      I can't see any real change her this Q.
      I think it might next Q.

      OTOH First Solar FSLR hit $300 a share on hope and stayed at $150 a share for years afterwards.

      If the demand does not arrive in time, then the stock will crumble immediately.
      Right now they still have places to go with them. The seem to have have enough demand for this Q.
      Q3? I don't think so at this point, but they will get more by then.
      How much more is the question in my mind.

    • I'll go fourth. tesla will report a minor profit, talk about the amount of cars sold last quarter and the amount to be sold for the year, talk about the amount of superchargers avail., Elon will predict something that will happen but not as quickly as he hopes, ballcrotch and kbooger will continue to bash tesla regardless of anything, and the stock will continue to go up as it has the last 6 months or since the IPO for that matter. Groung hog quarter. I've seen this for over 2 years now and don't see any of the above slowing down.

    • I'll go second...your puts ================================= worthless.

      Sentiment: Buy

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