I've been on this board a long time and I have been waiting for the right entry point for a short. The two biggest challenges for someone on the short side of TSLA are:
1) The irrational exuberance of longs make it a scary short
2) There are so many people on the short side of this trade that the premium you pay for puts is very high
But the recent run up on the basis of false earnings and product mix manipulation, combined with increasingly desperate signs from Elon Musk (i.e. "leasing deal" and "Total cost of Ownership") make me believe that internally Tesla is struggling to maintain a robust pipeline and they will struggle to achieve target margins for the rest of 2013.
The biggest risks I see is that the dollar/yen movement will benefit their COGS significantly (it depends on their contracts) and Elon Musk might "launch" his Gen 3 car to distract everyone from the unprofitability of the Model S.
I am long Jan 14 puts at a strike price of 35. I will not disclose magnitude of the bet but its an amount that I am OK losing completely.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I sold my calls and bought Puts today.
I intended to stay long until much closer to the CC. 7th or 8th probably.
I thought this morning looked like buyer exhaustion.
Also The number of pumpers who showed up today.
Micro's post complaining about the Service Announcement before it was announced, shows someone is getting inside info.
Micro was a basher with Triad. Today the group were mostly pumpers. (You can find their posts, many have Zero responses to them) Why? I think someone big is trying to get out or just smaller.
Also there is a raise out there somewhere.
However these are just thoughts.
If tomorrow the stock turn's around, I may well change my mind.
Until the CC.
I think; they put out all the good news from the report, at the beginning of the month.
While I don't expect horrible news, I do think they are not getting enough reservations. I think Coach was right about that as the reason for the announcements. I don't think they are in trouble yet and may never be.
You cat ignore the fact that the stock has had quite a run, even mediocre news could drop it $10 easily.
It will be back up in a week or three if that is the case.
Glad to see someone who posts short actually claim to take a short position. I went long on the pull back. I'll admit i started to fill up around the 56 mark, but I had flipped my shares at about 57.5 and when it came back down I wanted to fill back up.
Think you may simply be missing Elon's competitive nature.....I believe he sees the factory as capable of producing many more cars than just 500 a week, so why would he settle for sitting back and not seeking more buyers. There is already a rumor of them producing 650 a week now. Bet they are comfortable knowing they can produce/deliver a lot more. My assumption does not seek the negative side of needing more buyers from a lack of future buyers to maintain 500 week, but rather the optimistic side that they can produce and deliver even more.
You never short a trend like this, not smart. There is no huge bad news event or possibility of one coming up. Just not a smart move. Even day trading the easy thing to do is go long and wait for a pop over the B. band sell and rebuy under the B. band. It wouldn't be smart to go short on day trades. Just no reason in the world to short this stock.
Knock yourself out.
I've thought about you buy today and wonder if you should also consider some $65 Sept. Calls..?
Earlier this year I played Tesla with Long the Stock + some Sept. Call options, but also had June Puts just incase we tanked. It was sort of "Straddle" where I felt Tesla either imploded or rocketted. The stock was in the 30s at the time and after we bounced into the 40s on Q1 increase I sold the puts with a 50% loss and have kept the calls.
I only suggest that so if your thesis is wrong and the summer is good, you can make some coin on the Sept. Calls, but still hold those puts. I've felt like Tesla may do will the first half of this year, but could struggle in Q3 or Q4. I'm not saying they tank, but I can see the temptation.
For me personally I'd have to see the Shorts flushed out before I bought puts, however.
You do not sound like a typical basher but your basic assumption is wrong. Are you making the assumption that they are struggling based only on recent actions by Elon/Tesla? Are you trying to equal the actions that are designed to make it a better product to own to desperation on their part? You would have to short all the best companies by following that rule.
I have posted my short thesis on this board many times over the past years and you can read those posts. In summary, I believe they will not generate sufficient gross margins and volume to make money. For years such a thesis could only be speculation, but now that they are at full production reality will catch up. "Profitable in Q1" is a ruse.