Tesla has raised over $1B. That will allow it to deploy Model S and Model X worldwide:
1. Model S design is being modified to make it easier to manufacture, including the components. It will tighten tolerances and accelerate assembly. They could do 2 shift and produce 50,000 cars/year. Should happen by 2014. May be spend an extra $50M.
2. Model X manufacturing is going to cost only $200M since it will use common components with Model X. Experience with Model S will enable Tesla to simplify manufacturing and assembly. I expect Model X sales to exceed Model S. Just like Porsche Cayenne sales are 3x Panamera. They could produce 50,000 Model X/year.
3. Supercharge deployment can take place quickly. At $250k/6 stations they could deploy 200 sites in the US; 100 sites in Europe; 50 sites in Japan; 50 sites in China. Total cost=$100M.
4. They could add 100 service centers in the US, 30 in the EU, 10 in Japan, 10 in China. Total 150 centers. Total cost = $200M including loaners.
5. Deploy the 500 mile battery sooner than later for the price of the 85 KW-hr battery. With economies of scale drop the price of the base Model S/X 85 KW-hr to $65k with tech package, leather, SC use.
Elon Musk and the Tesla management team has executed to near perfection, including marketing, design, manufacturing, raising capital. They won several awards including from Consumer Reports! If they sells 100,000 cars, they could make $1B net after taxes. Wall Street will assign a hi PE. $30B or $200/share. That is even before Gen III.