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Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Message Board

  • temagami67 temagami67 Jul 20, 2013 1:41 PM Flag

    The Order Backlog

    Now that we’re past the end-of-the-quarter delivery blitz, we can get a feel for how fast orders are getting filled and estimate the order backlog. Essentially, all orders are going directly into the build schedule. It appears that all deliveries to California are made about 4 weeks after order confirmation. Deliveries to other locations are taking a week or two longer. The bottom line is that there are zero orders on backlog in NA.

    So this is what we're seeing. They are filling all NA orders ASAP, and using the remaining line capacity to whittle down the EU backlog. This allows them to maximize their manufacturing efficiency. Once the EU backlog is exhausted, the manufacturing logistics will become more tricky. I’m estimating this will occur around Thanksgiving.

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    • You forget Asian market is larger than either US or Europe? Even the US market is far from exhausted. Tesla will be kept very busy until the next model if the rest of nation buys the car at half of the rate of what Californians did.

    • In my case, I placed my order for a 85P/Pano/loaded on Jun-18, skipped the 2 week wait and the order was sent straight to factory. Next day I got VIN155XX (hi XX). Delivery in early Aug likely. Elon had a conference on Tesla Live a few days ago. He indicated strong demand and Tesla was unable to meet demand. There was also supply limitations with the batteries from Panasonic. I seriously doubt Elon would be misrepresenting.

      Anyway, nationwide supercharger deployment is taking place at an accelerated pace. These cost $150k without solar panels for a 6 charger site. I would guess that costs will come down as volume goes up. For $60M, Tesla could deploy 200 sites in US+Canada, 100 in Europe and 100 in China, just to get started. Demand will increase. This is not a static business model.

      The cost of the Model S without the battery could drop significantly, once their design/manufacturing is optimized along with the supply chain. Tesla was paying way too much for components like tires, rims, etc. Lot of room to cut expenses. Even the battery pack cost should come down.

      • 4 Replies to ajitmd2000
      • you raise an interesting point I had not considered when I determined TSLA is overvalued. Thank you for calling it to my attention. I did not know there was a limit on Panasonic batteries. If that is the case, how will they ever increase production / sales to the level needed for even current stock price, let alone the $200 or $300 suggested by Andrea James (or whatever the name is of the analyst taking other side from Goldman).

      • Congrats on your order! I am still waffling on whether or not to get the +

      • Tesla has several tire sizes and rim designs but they are only selling 5,000 car per quarter, They are probably paying retail more or less.

        Reality: In order to get a true volume discount you have to buy quantities that justify the discount, these are usually long term contracts that allow the supplier to invest in the process and buy materials in huge quantities under a contracted price.

        Example: If Tesla orders 5,000 stampings that weigh 1 pound each then the vendor can only order 5,000 LBS. of strip stock. There is no volume discount at 5,000 pounds. The first price cut is at about 50,000 lbs.

        But even before that the Vendor is not even going to try to get a discount for a small order. It's not worth their time to fool around with a small order. They will quote the job at full retail.

        This is manufacturing not industrial catalog sales. When you see discounts in catalogs it's to encourage a buyer to consolidate orders. The parts are already made, ordering in large quantities doesn't reduce costs that much it just saves paperwork.

      • AJ, as always good info from you. Thanks.

    • I visited a Tesla store in NJ last week and was told that it would take 2 months for delivery of a new Model S. I was offered any of the 7 models at that store (2 in showroom and 5 demos). They would deduct $1 for every mile on the odometer.

    • I'll take Tesla's word for it when they say demand for the S will be 30-40K units per year. It sounds very reasonable to me.

 
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