Why is it's valuation as if it will have perfect execution and tech stock like margins forever? It's forward p/e is higher than lnkd. The company said they hope to double sales in 2014, that might get them to 4 billion revenue. Yahoo shows Toyota's revenue at 289.95B, or more than 72 times Tesla's hoped for 2014 sales. At a $150 stock price, in comparison to Toyota and accounting for Tesla's goal of 25% margins, they need to get in the neighborhood of $58B in sales or more than a third of GM's revenue. Talk about pricing in absolute perfection.
Not every person who owns an IPhone can afford a Tesla car. What planet do you live in? Every Joe can go to a store and buy an IPhone for about few hundred bucks. These cars cost $100k+. Just think about this for a moment, you have to earn at least $250k and have about $1m+ in other assets (not including home) to buy a Tesla. That is just my opinion. Right now they have a certain demographic who have bought or are buying these cars. But this demographic is going to shrink unless they buy one Tesla every year. The 1% of US wealthy who can afford one of these toys is only 3m ppl. Most of them want more secure car and probably want more luxury cars (Porsche, Ferrari's etc). Unless they start producing electric car that sells for the middle class (around $30k-$40k) soon, they will not make it far. Ford, GM, Nisan and now BMW all have Electiric cars. Ford Focus sells for about $40k and as the batteries start to go down, the prices for these cars will go down. And at the end of the day, the companies that will succeed are the ones that will bring "time to market" faster. Tesla has only one plant...and they produce only about 400 cars a month...Do the math before you start losing your shirt. As Bill Clinton said at DNC, it simple arithmetic. This is a big hype. Good luck to the ones that made money, but if I were you, I would take my winnings and enjoy my profit.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Whoops, I messed up the math. That $58B figure is way off. $150 prices in about $3B in revenue in comparison to Toyota and a 25% margin. So if they reach $4B in 2014 sales and maintain a 25% margin, this thing could be priced at $200 using Toyota and it's margins as a rough metric
Remember, Amazon has a very good business model and have been around since the 90's. Amazon is almost bankrupting the rest of the retailer (Brick and mortar ones). In fact companies like Best buy and few other electronic retailers almost went belly up about a year ago. Plus Amazon sells almost every Product that exist out there. They are even moving to delivering groceries.