When you all hear that "Tesla wants to make 40K next year" - what does that mean? It has come up numerous times on CNBC, blogs and forums.
Well, I am re-reading the transcript of the Aug 7th earnings release. Musk's own words are vague and indicate this is a guesstimate with no real sort of guarantee. In fact, it means by the end of 2014, it will be a possible annualized take rate of vehicles (take rate = deliveries or "sales"). So, the total sales of Model-S in 2014 - NOWHERE near 40,000. They may sell 8-10K in 14Q4 if the Asian countries open up and have a high take rate. Model-X delayed to 2015.
Musk's own words:
"And maybe it ultimately as good as North America, but I will consider that's why we say that half as good. Then China and the rest of Asia and other countries, well, if they can be half as good as North America, then we are at the 40,000 unit number and so that all seems pretty reasonable to me."
He says "well, if they can be half as good". #$%$? That is wild childlike speculation without true business accumen. How then CNBC and analysts take statements like that as "we will sell 40,000 in 2014 is how this stock rises like it does.
Everyone - go read the transcript and 10-Q from the Q2 earnings. Go listen to Musk. He has his tells and he has to hide reality behind fantasy. In the transcript of the earnings conf. call they even admit that they have some issues with some suppliers not able to ramp up and have to fix those type of issues (normal for many businesses).
The reality is 2014 will be roughly 30,000 sales, all Model-S. I cannot guess as good a Musk but much of this speculation is pump from the CEO on down.
I am only looking to find the true value in this company based on what they possibly can do as a business. With so many other auto makers out there also selling EVs, they take market share today and more will be involved in the future.
See you Tuesday. Let's talk facts, not speculation.
Could it be that Elon Musk was just under estimating his projection as a prudent thing to do to prevent any future litigation? Steve Jobs and AAPL did this several times not to over promise or over estimate their future sales and earnings. Whatever happened next year, you bet wrong this year, and you missed the proverbial boat of good profit. So all your speculative projection is useless. As the nasty 'Borg' of Star Trek eerily echoes
the warning: "resistance is futile.... you will be assimilated "..... LOL
I was listening to Peter Thiel yesterday on NPR. He was the CEO of Paypal when Musk was around. Sounds like Musk wasn't all that involved in the company but was part of the financing of the business. I just don't think Musk is nearly as brilliant as Jobs or any of you guys think he is. I think he's getting worn out on 20K cars a year and cannot hit the numbers that are being hoisted on his back for future delivery. He had trouble getting the 2500 Roadsters out the door and a lot of early Tesla employees have left. I think this story has a few more chapters in it and it's interesting to watch. But too many people are pumping using speculation for this to be a true success like Apple. Apple made small, addictive consumer devices in large scale using very cheap labor which also incited constant change and re-purchase of new models every year or two - this is not Apple.
Jobs was a crack dealer selling a physically addictive product. Musk is selling a physical "pet" which must be taken care of and kept healthy for years. Once bought you must take care of your pet and not buy new ones every year to replace the old model with the new model. People could buy a new IPod every year using income from their part-time job. Children could buy their products. This is not Apple.
And, please explain profit? There is not any profit at this company yet.
Nobody is crying - I am not going to participate in a pump campaign to assign fake value. I would like to see fair value for everyone who trades this. I'm short since Q2 earnings showed a huge reliance on non-GAAP, read the Analyst hype versus the reality of the business and now this whole ridiculous view of some numbers in the 100s of thousands per year. Most people here don't fully understand the EV business. I've watched it for five years now, been an owner of an EV for a year but know some of the early adopters from 2010. I have been to a whole lot of energy conferences and understand what is going on. Nobody is crying - I believe I am right in my stance that the stock should be 72-75 pps until they release the Model-X in early 2015. Nobody's crying, I'm trying to educate you guys.