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Tesla Motors, Inc. Message Board

  • temagami67 temagami67 Oct 15, 2013 7:21 PM Flag

    3rd Quarter Delivery Estimate

    It's getting really hard to estimate deliveries based on recent VIN reports, but it's always fun to take a shot. There was a big push to get EU signatures delivered in the first part of the quarter, then a big push to unload the EU pipeline and deliver to ZEV states in in September. So where do we stand for end of the quarter? I'm estimating the EU waterline at about VIN 17000 and the NA waterline at about VIN 22000. These estimates are pretty coarse due to very sparse reporting, but I come up with 1200 EU deliveries and 5300 NA deliveries for a total of 6500 in Q3.

    This is about 1000 more than my estimate a couple of months ago, due to both unloading the EU pipeline and increased weekly production. In fact, my profitability spreadsheet now shows a GAAP profit of $1M. My spreadsheet does not comprehend non-GAAP profit, but it should be phenomenal.

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    • Since you've been so accurate in the past, I feel even better about my 6000 minimum, likely 6300 figures. What do you think about the idea that cars produced in Q2 for Europe but in transit and therefore not counted as sold will be LESS than the number of cars produced and in transit during Q3? In other words, if production has greatly increased and if a large number of cars are going to Europe, we'll only see a small part of that production increase (some "recapture" from Q2, some production from Q3) with the bulk of the production increase showing up as sales in Q4?

      Tesla has said they would have "...generated a significant level of cash from operations" were it not for several one-time effects in Q2. Therefore, I expect cash from operations to be very strong without these one-time issues, the benefit of the price increase, no "60kw sold at 40kw" pricing and MS Sig sales to Europe.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to justthefactsmaam_ok
      • JTF, I think it's certainly true that there were more cars in transit to Europe at the end of Q3 than at the end of Q2. I was expecting that it could be as high as 800-1000 cars, which would have resulted in a large operating loss for Q3 (which would have been recaptured in Q4). But instead they pretty much quit building EU cars in September. I'm guessing that there were less than 150 cars in transit at the end of the quarter. I'm also guessing that they will unload the pipeline again in December.

    • Have you considered interest expense, new service centers, new charging stations, more R and D, new land bought for 150 million, gps problems and drive train repairs at service centers for free, expense of loaners, etc., to arrive at 1 million profit. Not saying you are not accurate, just asking if these have been considered as additional expense for Q3.

      • 2 Replies to bottomntop
      • " land bought for 150 million..."

        Where did you come up with this? Here's what the company said:

        "We expect to spend about $150 million in the second half of this year on capital expenditures, including the recent
        purchase of 31 acres of land adjacent to our factory for future expansion."

        That's not just for land but also capital expenditures and it's for the next 6 months, not just Q3.

        GPS problems? Probably not significant as the issue looks like it's mostly an issue with a part and the supplier will take the hit, less labor costs.

        Drive train repairs? That will be more significant but we'll see how many cars had the issue and how much supplier recourse there is.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • bottomntop, for sure you hit on some good points. There are so many things that will be a lot different from the last quarter. Gross margins should be up about 5% simply due to the price increases, but it may be cancelled out by reductions in ZEV credit sales. With the addition of European sales, SG&A expenses should be up considerably. And warranty costs will be much higher.

        Although my spreadsheet shows a calculated profit of $1M profit, it's really just a number for your amusement. There are factors which I can't predict that can swing it by tens of millions.

    • I am at 6218 total with 1218 of them in EU.

    • that's exactly inline with my estimates, even the GAAP profit...that was supposed to be a secret! :)

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