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Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Message Board

  • childerssg85 childerssg85 Oct 17, 2013 3:08 PM Flag

    Can We Talk About Facts and Not Opinions

    Approximately 13k vins were given out in Q3. The shorts here are adamant that only approximately 6k Model S's were delivered. I don't understand why they get so mad at me for pointing out facts. Based off these FACTS I think they delivered 10k cars and had a 3k backlog at the end of Q3.

    Ridiculing me doesn't make anyone any money but feel free to do it. Someone on this board needs to talk about facts. Its sad that I'm the only one who is.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Right so on November 5 when Tesla reports that they did NOT sell 10,000 cars in the quarter, you will come and post an apology and say how wrong you were, sell your stock, and validate the shorts position. Right? Just so we are clear on facts.

    • Endless talk about VIN numbers and number of cars produced. The real question is: Can Tesla make any money in the car manufacturing business and then, if they can make money, what stock price can be supported by those earnings. Most shorts do not dislike the car or Elon Musk. They just think that Tesla will never earn enough money to support a $180 stock price. My guess is that it will settle in a below $50 whenever the Tesla fever breaks.

    • Tesla had a corporate presentation last month and it said they were producing around 500 cars/week. There is no chance they produced enough cars to get deliveries anywhere near 10,000 for the quarter. Order rate of 10,000? Yes, but not deliveries and a car is not considered as sold until it's delivered. And I'm not short.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • @childerssg95
      I understand this is a crucial aspect of the value of the stock price and your investment and I understand why you are so concerned about it. I will try one last time to explain. This is what the person on Tesla Motors who keeps tabs of the VIN numbers wrote. I hope this helps.

      "I've only been collecting VIN assignment data since mid-May, so I don't have enough Q2 data to develop any kind of conversion from "VINs assigned" (what I track) to "cars delivered" (what gets reported) to guide a Q3 estimate with confidence.

      "VINs assigned" will be different than, and definitely lower than, "cars delivered" because:
      • Not all VINs issued result in cars produced
      • Not all VINs issued that get produced are for external customers (some VINs are for Tesla's own use, such as loaners or test vehicles)
      • Not all VINs issued that get produced get delivered (due to cancellations, etc.)
      • Also, the lag between issuing a VIN and delivering a car will be different depending on what country the customer is in, what options were requested, etc.

      If you look at the period of June - August, Tesla probably issued around 7,500 VINs, most of those to end customers. If you assume that 75%-85% of those actually result in cars delivered to customers within a month of VIN issuance, then a reasonable estimate of cars delivered in Q3 (July-September) would be ~5,600 to ~6,400. But, as I said, I don't have enough data to make that prediction confidently. Q4 should be a much more solid guess.

      Any way you slice it, Tesla will exceed its own goals and guidance...yet again."
      - Craig

      • 3 Replies to bottomntop
      • The stock market looks at the future. I looked at the data and the latest rate of VIN issuance is between 700-800, but probably closer to 700. That is an annualized rate of 35,000 cars/year. As the geographic and the supercharger expansion continues, it is reasonable to expect the demand to reach 1,000/week or annualized rate of 50,000 cars/year.

        Tesla is investing in equipment, automation and supply chain as well as design upgrades to increase manufacturing efficiency. Considering that the ASP $90,000, there is a lot of room to increase gross margins to at least 25% by year end. Tesla is not run by dummies. They have talented and experienced folks from Toyota, MB, etc who can scale production efficiently. It is not a linear model.

        With Model X, the company could sell 100,000/year rate by the end of 2015. Do the math for earnings, valuation.

      • How by any stretch of the imagination could 6,000 cars in a quater be considered a sucess? No company can make money selling 24,000 cars a year.

      • I realize this thats why my figure is that 10k model S's were delivered. 80% of 13k is just over 10k. So your making my point. Guess your finally realizing what I've been saying all along.

 
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