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Tesla Motors, Inc. Message Board

  • bertram31clasic bertram31clasic Oct 19, 2013 7:11 AM Flag

    VIN assignments

    Over at the Tesla forum there seems to be a noticeable slowdown in the VIN's being reported for the month of October.

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    • Slowing down in October may be an understatement. For the 2 months prior to Oct 11, they were averaging over 700 VIN's per week. But in the last 10 days there have been only 150. Anyone want to equate VIN assignment rate to production rate?

    • Perhaps that's the reason for yesterday's MAD EXIT as predicted by you.

    • People posting their VINs vs actual VIN assignments are not the same thing but we all know how disingenuous you are and should expect nothing less.

      For everyone else I would note that the Model S design page now shows 2-3 month delivery times for the 60 and 85 models with the P85 still at 1 month. In other words, wait time has increased for the standard 85. Could it be due to demand, supplier or production issues? I believe it's the former but we'll see.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 2 Replies to justthefactsmaam_ok
      • There was a time back in August when I thought Tesla might be "introuble" because the wait time had come down to 6 weeks or so. But as FutureCarTesla predicted, demand in the second half would pick up and he was correct.

        You are also correct that even with Tire Wear, Vampire Load and other modest issues, Tesla has Increased Production while wait time is now approx. 10 weeks all this with a price increase.

        I think Tesla needs to fix that tire wear issue going forward by adding in some adjustable suspension links to take out some of the aggressive camber, but as I've said before it's not much different on my BMW 335i. BMW even puts that crazy camber on their station wagons which cracks me up. It's a fairly easy fix if done at the production/assembly phase versus changing out after the fact.

        Either way the numbers don't lie and Tesla is stronger in the fall than in the spring. WIll be interesting if they can turn a profit by the end of the year without ZEV Credits.

      • Justthefacts, just where did all the VIN hoopla get you last quarter? How about nowhere? Where did all the hoopla about 20,000 deposits get you in Q4, 2012? How about nowhere? Where did all the hoopla about being profitable in 2013 get you? How about nowhere?

        Every time you guys come out with some wild claim about Tesla business, virtually none of the claims comes to fruition. What makes your current claim any different?

    • Musk said on October 15th that the Model S is sold out until "well into March". Tesla gives you a vin when you order so obviously people aren't in a rush when they hear the long wait despite Musk increasing production by 25% for the quarter.

    • Yes, I see that in the numbers as well. I have said a month ago that Q4 will be financially worse for T than Q3. Q3 was a good quarter to intice the big stock runup to pay back their underwriters for the May debt relief. Good luck to retail investors who bought millions of shares from institutional holders who have let them go.

      • 1 Reply to jmcvicker
      • Yes......institutions are dumping this rock as fast as they can. It is hype and a fad stock at best. TSLA has done all it can paining the income statement with as much front end loading as it can. Domestic sales are overstated and it appears TSLA will have to repay all the energy grants and loans it received while it promised production numbers that will be impossible to meet. Suppliers are walking away as they see nothing from this company but hype and empty commitments. This 1,000,000 dollar valuation per car sold when the average is around 8,000 has got to be seen. Yes it is a stock and a company worth taking a chance on about 30 to 40 dollars a share. A company that generates it cash from from selling government energy credits......Should not be worth 22 billion in market cap.

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • I hope they start giving out Vins after the cars are built, not before.
      chevy gives Volt buyers their Vin after it leaves the factory.

      • 1 Reply to jmcvicker
      • Tracking VIN's, both assigned and delivered, can provide a wealth of information. But you need to be careful about what conclusions you draw. Here's how VIN's work.

        New cars begin life with a VIN assignment. They are assigned sequentially. For each VIN, a build sheet is generated that lists all of the options on the car. Then, based on parts inventories or other strategic needs, the cars are scheduled for build. Cars are not built in sequential VIN order.

        The point in time where a VIN is communicated to a customer is purely at the discretion of the manufacturer. For Tesla, VIN communication has only been consistent for the past couple of months. Before that, there was little value in trying to track the assignment dates. But I fear that they might be going back to "just in time" communication, since there were only a few new ones posted in the past week.

        Bottom line - there's information out there, but be careful about how you connect the dots.

    • Using the VINs to estimate production is slly IMO.

      Telsa shipped 5,100 cars in Q2. They claim they held back shipments to EU. So let's saythey actually built 6,100 cars in Q2 and held 1,000 back. Now let's say they built 7,100 in Q3 plus they delivered the 1,000 they held in Q2. That's 8,100 cars shipped in Q3.

      • 1 Reply to kbodie77777
      • What these folks don't understand, what they REALLY don't understand is timely reporting is crucial in auto retailing. Being stealth or closed-mouth solves nothing other than extend the intrigue for a company completely unprepared to tackle the rigors of being a big ticket retailer.

        What must be extremely un-nerving for those who follow the business is WHY be so secretive? What's the purpose? While so many of you dreamers bash auto dealers, the fact remains that ONLY Tesla refuses to release sales data. It's not a smart thing. It's not a new paradigm. It's merely a childish prank, IMO, for a company unable to play with the big boys. Perhaps MORE laughing at competitors, like last CC at BMW, will be appropriate?

        This is all about stock manipulation, IMO. If you can't sell enough product to make money, pump the stock to unrealistic heights. Yeah, that's the ticket!

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