If Germany does not order that many cars, whole Europe could be troublesome for Musk. He is Desperate to get orders and throwing freebies. Us buyers also wants freebies-human nature. 4th Q may not be that good as 3rd. It will set tone for 2014. Competition is another worry in 2014. Any way this euphoria may not last long.
If you're referring to Craig Froehle's VIN thread, it's obviously voluntary and not everyone who buys a Tesla goes on the forum let alone posts their VIN. VIN postings can give an idea of demand but lack of postings doesn't necessarily mean the opposite-it may just mean a lack of postings. We'll have to see. If you have another source of VIN assignments post it.
I would note that if actual sales were down to the 16,000/year as indicated by Craig's thread, that would imply 2500 cars per quarter overproduction yet delivery times have stayed consistent in the 1-3 month range. Also job openings are at yet another all time high-and by a good margin over the last time looked several weeks ago.
You are downplaying what many analysts used to issue 200-240 price targets. In fact, people overestimated sales due to Tesla giving out Vin #s to people early (Europe, weeks/months in advance). So, right now, this is backfiring for Tesla and they really should not give out a Vin until the car is running down the production line and/or out the back door.
Yes, given the Vin # trending, Q4 is setting up for flat growth or even slightly fewer sales than Q3. Still will be strong in CA but imagine living in NJ and ordering up a Tesla at Short Hills mall in January. The Norway guys taking delivery are getting them now with summer tires on them and are scrambling to get winter tires installed. A small problem but the eagerness for a performance EV delivered in winter will be low. Just look at insideevs ( a web site ) for the delivery profile of EVs - Jan/Feb drop off substantially (perhaps due to the lack of ease of taking the 7500 tax credit early in the year). If Tesla also has a drop-off in the early months of the year, then surely Q1 will also be flat and they will have to work hard to raise sales into the summer of 2014.
Yesterday's growth in stock was a reaction to two things - hiring Doug (from Apple) and the reaction to no formal NHTSA review of the Washington piercing of battery fire. This may be a head fake within the downward channel of trading trends. If you see today dip down below 170 by 10:30am, this will be occurring. It's Options Friday so look at open interest in the options to try to judge where things may be headed. If it closes below 170 and a lot of puts get assigned then Monday may be another down day.
What does Doug Fields bring to Apple? Design and management. But what does this signal long-term? Could Telsa be setting up to build Model-E in China like Apple builds their products? Would you buy an imported Tesla made elsewhere? Musk said, in London yesterday, that Model-E will be "about half" the cost of the Model-S. That is a range of 1/2 of $70-110K. The base Model-E before interesting options should be in the $35k-40k range with performance models ranging upward. This is not a price range that will sell well with good gross margin unless it is made in a low-cost labor country or perhaps they throw out the $35K base price and let it settle. 3-4 years out...
And I think they hired Doug to get moving on Model-E now because they must get more models on the road to keep interest going. Without news, new models, activity, etc - then interest will wane and slowly erode the stock price. Then again - how much does he really care about stock price? he says that profit is not Tesla's goal. it is delivery of sustainable transportation. They can do that with a stock price of 180, 80, 40. But they need "stock-winners" to use their gains to buy some of their cars. A downward stock price trend would indeed sour the sales numbers.
The timing of Tesla entering the German market is most unfortunate. Merkels' sudden withdrawal from nuclear power has left Germany at the point of electro-starvation, Nuclear energy and EV are the natural marriage due to the inherent synchronization of EVs nighttime demand and nuclears nighttime surplus.
In my opinion France, who is fully devoted to nuclear would have been a much better candidate. I can understand Tesla's devotion to the German market, because Tesla has strongly partnered (as a supplier) with German car makers to introduce EV;s into the global market place.
Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail in Germany's energy policy, and some type of sustainable and affordable electricity supply will return to the German market place.