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Tesla Motors, Inc. Message Board

  • oldtimernow oldtimernow Jan 11, 2014 8:09 PM Flag

    Tesla Short

    Sittin' here on Sat night watching the Saints vs Seattle with a few brew and thinking, my last short was Sunbeam and that work for me.....but this short is so much more compelling. My years as an automotive engineer with a MBA (emphasis on financial analysis) have positioned me to understand how totally ridiculous the Tesla proposition is....this is a cake walk for the shorts. Just need to have the saying power and resolution....which I have both...to wait it out. I feel good and have such firm conviction in my belief....oh, I feel good. Will consider covering at $50 (so I can move onto something else).....but may wait for lower. No doubt.......hybrids are the future. With the additional weight of the very large tesla battery, I'd rather have a smaller battery and a ICE to extend my range without concern where I go. Hybrids are the elegant solution, more energy efficient, less carbon footprint, and unlimited range when compared with a pure EV. Can Tesla produce a hybrid to compete with the majors? The longs are financial...not technical people. Damn is this easy! What are the institutions thinking? It's only a matter of time until the gig is up. Just let me ask one question...why aren't any of the majors trying to compete with Tesla? They aren't stupid.

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    • I agree TSLA is a good company but the stock valuation is ridiculous. It reminds me of the 1999 tech bubble. Elon Musk even agrees his stock is grossly overvalued. I'll be adding to my short this week.

    • Oldtimer, we're in a new time now. Tesla is showing what's possible. ICE cars are polluting dinosaurs that need to go extinct. Mr. Musk is offering a complete ecological solution if you consider Solar City to charge your Tesla at home and use charging stations if you want to take a longer trip. Most drivers don't need to go more than the range of the Tesla most of the time. Batteries are steadily getting better and cheaper to make. In wheel electric motors are coming that promise another leap in performance/weight and space saving ability. Technology is not standing still.
      Hybrids will be useful for long haul 18 wheelers or extra heavy equipment vehicles, but for the average commuter, pure electrics do more than an adequate job.

      • 1 Reply to uppekhahead
      • Uppek, Lot's of errors in your post. ICE pollute less than EV and hybrids pollute even less. Tesla has a carbon footprint the same as an SUV. Look it up. Solar panels have low power output and it takes a lot of solar panels to charge a EV in a reasonable time. Do the calculations and let me know how many square feet of PV's are needed to charge a Tesla. Set forth you calculations and I will share mine. At least show me you know how.......do you? We do agree that the EV is a car to be driven locally. hybrids for 18 wheelers? You really don't understand hybrids. Hybrids key attribute is that they recover braking energy encountered in local driving. The only advantage they have on the highway is that they have smaller ICE engines (which operate more efficiently because the engine operates at heavier loads) because the hybrid design has the combines power of both the ICE engine and the electric motor. 18 wheelers would not benefit at all from hybrid technology. Yes, technology moves forward......you think everyone doesn't know that.

    • your background as an automotive engineer with an MBA is exactly what blinds you to the future of Tesla. you are like the buggy whip expert predicting that automobiles will never catch on, or the telegraph operator who mocks the telephone. tesla's valuation can almost be justified by earnings from sales of the model s and model x, without even throwing in the next gen car. the simple fact is that tesla has innovated new distribution models, is investing in a re-charging infrastructure and is making cars that people pay for before the car is made. i believe the model x will sell better than the model x (perfect for the upscale soccer moms). i believe that the price swings in tesla will be much less this coming year and that neither shorts nor longs will make a killing. but the company is getting set up for a bright future and you will probably miss it.

      • 3 Replies to mngtscrwdup
      • mngts, I presented several hard factual points. You contested none of them. I didn't talk about model X, sales volumes, profitability, infrastructure. My assertion primarily addressed the advantages of hybrid/plug-in hybrid vs EV technology. But, I will say this.....the longs and valuation are betting on a lot yet to come and assuming the absolute best case scenario which I don't think is realistic. We'll see. Shorting is a very difficult game. Doesn't the fact that nearly half the float has been shorted at least tell you a little something?

      • AA batteries.
        (eyes rolling)

      • ".....Valuation ...... justified by earnings from sales of model s and model x..."????? Really? What "earnings" are you talking about? While Tesla has managed gross profit, net profit is out of the question.

        When will you folks begin talking like adults? Gross profit, net profit, two entirely different things, Tesla doesn't have the latter.

    • Let me sum it up for you: You are all BS. First of all it isn't such a cake walk - how were your shorts feeling all of last year? Second, just about every major company trying to compete against TSLA - they're even starting to mimic the TSLA model of direct sales (imitation is the sincerest form of...knowing you're about to get your butt kicked). And TSLA is not trying to go backwards and produce a hybrid - they are setting the bar that the majors will have to climb over. I think you need to put the brew down - too much of the cheap stuff can cloud your judgment.

      • 3 Replies to dogzdrinkcoffee
      • (((( Second, just about every major company trying to compete against TSLA ))))

        Wow .... you've almost got it.

        No offense but investors like you who are in love with tesla encourage shorts. We see you and your statements as evidence that the price is being support but irrational emotions.

        The fact is that the other OEMs are forced to sell EVs below cost. The large OEMS have a full line of vehicles that produce a profit so they can afford to lose money on EVs. Tesla and Fisker can't afford to lose money for long.

        When the other OEMs decided to do their own EVs the writing was on the wall. The large OEMs have massive cost advantages and the pricing war has begun. Tesla has to offer incentives in the USA.

      • Hey Dog, personal insults are never productive. I have my opinion and you have yours. I'll repost this at $100 and then at $50. Yes, that's just my opinion, but I think I have the ability to really understand this. You may as well. You can repost this at $200 and then $250. I'll stick with my contention that hybrids are really the answer for the masses as fuel prices increase. Tesla will remain a niche player. Going downmarket will face stronger headwinds than experienced with the S model.

      • Go to any upscale or mid level store and ask 10 random people about their thoughts about EVs and when they will be buying one. There is niche interest but the herd is not yet on board. Give them 80moh SUVs for pennies per mile and they will switch. Otherwise, they like convenience. Just take convenience away from someone and ask them to choose for that. EVs are great, I drive one, i don't see people wanting to do the same. In another generation or if gas is above $5 you will see concern. But if that is the case then electricity prices will also be rising somewhat, but slower. Some people cannot do the math and determine their cost per mile. They need an education. And remember back in high school when it wasn't cool to be smart? Those are the people running our country right now. Lack of responsibility and ability to add some work on top of our current level of convenience shows that we will not have eV majority for many decades to come. EVs make sense. But just not enough sense right now. Especially for wives who can't be inconvenienced. It bothers them.

        You could have superchargers every 50 miles from NY to DisneyWorld but many people want to drive down non stop at 80mph and stop twice for 1/2 hour for the run. Ask that family if four over 1 hour stops is convenient? It would mean they would either have to stay overnight on the way or drive even faster risking their own lives and others. Imagine if they have to wait for a stall? Every time i see a luxury sedan, including Tesla, on the roads here, they are always 15-20 mph over the limit. Such is entitlement.

    • I've lost my faith in greed.
      Can't believe wall street hasn't had a cookout with burnt marsh mellows.

 
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