Actually, at 50,000 cars/yr they should generate about $ 4.50/share. If you apply a modest 40x to that level of earnings you get a stock worth $ 180 per share. Of course they won't produce that many cars in 2014 - maybe 30-32K. But this stock benefits from the speculation that it will dominate the EV space which should continue to grow on a global basis. All EV sales are less than 1/2 of 1% of total car sales. How much upside is there? Who knows but I would suggest that growing to only 3% would be a significant number and Tesla should be in a position to take the majority share of that 3%, If Tesla can maintain its brand image until the model E rolls out, they should make significant inroads to the EV market. It would be like BMW making a moderate priced car which is affordable by the middle class. People recognize the BMW brand and associate it with quality cars, if you can now afford a moderate priced BMW, you might make a buying decision. Same with Tesla, if people continue to view them as a high quality vehicle, then they may be more apt to buy a model E when its available. They still have a lot of work to do.
Well, I will give a stab at a reply, though not sure you are asking a sincere question.
Big picture is the battery versus ICE, which in a way is similar to ICE vs horse buggy or VHS vs Betamax. That is, one has to go away into the sunset. Sure, it will take time, but except for the cost, I do not see the ICE advantage. No engine, no liquid stuff, wearable items, much better frontal crumple zone. Distribution of electricity is also outstandingly easier vs dielsels and gas. Of course, current setups at home should be amped up step by step.
Second is how safe Tesla cars are proving to be. No fatality or serious injury after a year+ on the road for a new technology? There is a serious substance there. I do not understand it fully myself.
Third, the CEO has proven he can break down any problem into solvable steps.
Pay Pal, Space X, Solar City, Tesla... Space X just blows my mind.
Hydrogen fuel cell is interesting, especially coming from strong Toyota, but as this CEO has VERY extensive experience/knowledge on it(Space X rockets use them), when he disses it ref car application, I will believe that opinion is coming from the best expert. This is like a game of Othello, and the winner, that is battery tech and Tesla, will force everyone into its color.